Russia reopens the Kharkov front to stretch Kiev's defensive reserves and to fragment Kiev's ruling class cohesion in the wake of Zelensky's legitimacy crisis.
Great article! “The Russians would prefer to control Odessa through negotiating a future puppet regime in Kiev.” Do you think Russia will trust a future puppet regime with this resource hanging over Russia’s head? Or will Russia have to formally annex in order to always have leverage over a puppet regime? I’ve said elsewhere that I don’t believe that Russia wants to (or can, frankly speaking) control much of Ukraine and is content with the 4 new oblasts, Crimea and Nikolaev and Odessa in the future. I really don’t think they want to do more than that due to the huge financial resources involved. Curious to hear your thoughts!
Thanks! Russia will want Ukraine to become a Belarus 2.0. With the possible exception of Western Ukraine (Galicia) which they may hand over to NATO. Two years ago in the Istanbul Accords that were never consummated, Russia had a provision where their people would sit in on some Ukrainian government meetings, particularly concerning security matters. There will have to be a new leader who takes charge and who is able to build a relationship with the Russians. In all cases, Russia first and foremost wants a compliant Ukraine, just like during the later years of the Soviet Union. After a compliant Ukraine is achieved, which territories Russia controls can be discussed--outside of Crimea of course. If the Donbass were to ever be given back to Ukraine, it would be in name only.
There's a Marxist concept of Primitive Accumulation, which was a process to dispossess the feudal peasants and force them into the cities to be prole factory workers. I've been toying with a concept of Secondary Accumulation, which is a process to dispossess the middle classes in the West, who were the big winners from post-WW2 glory days capitalism. The flood of new arrivals is part of this process. There will have to be a couple of very grim decades in order to reset downwards American expectations.
It seems there is a battle between a one world hegemony of the West versus a "globe of nations" concept with the BRICS. In the end though we probably are heading towards some sort of global republic, it's just a question of when.
Great article! “The Russians would prefer to control Odessa through negotiating a future puppet regime in Kiev.” Do you think Russia will trust a future puppet regime with this resource hanging over Russia’s head? Or will Russia have to formally annex in order to always have leverage over a puppet regime? I’ve said elsewhere that I don’t believe that Russia wants to (or can, frankly speaking) control much of Ukraine and is content with the 4 new oblasts, Crimea and Nikolaev and Odessa in the future. I really don’t think they want to do more than that due to the huge financial resources involved. Curious to hear your thoughts!
Thanks! Russia will want Ukraine to become a Belarus 2.0. With the possible exception of Western Ukraine (Galicia) which they may hand over to NATO. Two years ago in the Istanbul Accords that were never consummated, Russia had a provision where their people would sit in on some Ukrainian government meetings, particularly concerning security matters. There will have to be a new leader who takes charge and who is able to build a relationship with the Russians. In all cases, Russia first and foremost wants a compliant Ukraine, just like during the later years of the Soviet Union. After a compliant Ukraine is achieved, which territories Russia controls can be discussed--outside of Crimea of course. If the Donbass were to ever be given back to Ukraine, it would be in name only.
There's a Marxist concept of Primitive Accumulation, which was a process to dispossess the feudal peasants and force them into the cities to be prole factory workers. I've been toying with a concept of Secondary Accumulation, which is a process to dispossess the middle classes in the West, who were the big winners from post-WW2 glory days capitalism. The flood of new arrivals is part of this process. There will have to be a couple of very grim decades in order to reset downwards American expectations.
It seems there is a battle between a one world hegemony of the West versus a "globe of nations" concept with the BRICS. In the end though we probably are heading towards some sort of global republic, it's just a question of when.