Hamas launched a surprise invasion of Israel from the south. Hezbollah is a much more formidable fighting force located north of Israel in Lebanon and could inflict substantial damage on Israel.
I very much agree that Hezbollah is the key. They are doubtless in touch w/ Tehran, and both may have been surprised by Hamas forcing the issue. As you say tho, good timing. It's going to be an interesting few weeks.
All morning I was working on a different piece (on human domestication) but early this afternoon I realized this Israeli thing was serious. The first think I thought about was that this does not get really serious until Hezbollah steps in. Between Twitter and Telegram I was able to amass enough details really quickly. I had also been studying the Yom Kippur war for yet another post that may or may not ever appear (on AirLand Battle doctrine).
I very much agree that Hezbollah is the key. They are doubtless in touch w/ Tehran, and both may have been surprised by Hamas forcing the issue. As you say tho, good timing. It's going to be an interesting few weeks.
How did you get this out so quickly!?
All morning I was working on a different piece (on human domestication) but early this afternoon I realized this Israeli thing was serious. The first think I thought about was that this does not get really serious until Hezbollah steps in. Between Twitter and Telegram I was able to amass enough details really quickly. I had also been studying the Yom Kippur war for yet another post that may or may not ever appear (on AirLand Battle doctrine).
Would love to see the piece on AirLand Battle doctrine if you have the time!
In fact, Hamas' surprise attack can be understood through the lens of AirLand Battle--so I'm now working on synthesizing the two.