Looming defeat in Ukraine, regime change in Europe—whose geopolitical game plan will shape the future? America as leader of a globalized world or an autarkic American-Island prepared to stand alone?
I’d very very curious if Europe does reconcile with Russia and create a “Lisbon to Vladivostok” civilizational understanding. I do think it’s up in the air. One benefit of the current state of affairs in the Russia vs. West Cold War is that Russia’s human capital no longer flees to countries like Germany, etc and its wealthy are forced to reinvest in Russia. The new normal may be preferable long term.
What I find interesting is the Musk / Trump are promoting the political parties who are most open to Europe reconciling with Russia. Perhaps this is part of a mid-term plan to pull Russia away from China? But I think it will take at least a decade to cleanse all the anti-Russian brainwashing out of the collective European mindset.
One of the biggest own-goals the West scored was in attacking Russian oligarchs and demonizing Russians in general, which impacted the anti-Russian liberal classes in St. Petersburg, etc. Russian oligarchs were the greatest enemy Russia has ever faced. They were draining the nation of capital and then spreading this Russian wealth in the Côte d'Azur and West London. By appropriating Russian oligarchic wealth, the West forced them back to mother Russia, where they are forced to reinvest their capital into growing the Russian economy.
The worst type of Western colonialism is the brain-drain operations which capture the best of brightest of semi-peripheral nations. If there is eventually a thaw in Russian relations with the West, then unfortunately the oligarchs and liberals will see an opening to once again undermine the Russian economy.
I’m still stunned at your perspective of the “dueling oligarchs”. So obvious and yet so difficult to put it together for the average person (even to the well-read ones I suspect).
The concept originates from Jeffrey A. Winters' book Oligarchy. At its core, it emphasizes that people shouldn't view themselves as passive political subjects but as active agents capable of influencing power dynamics—even attempting to play divide-and-rule with the oligarchy. The challenge, however, is that oligarchs are not foolish like the masses often are. They understand the critical importance of unity to maintain their dominance. This is evident as we see oligarchs increasingly aligning with Trump, abandoning the partisan divides that once appeared to fragment their ranks. My hope was that they would remain divided along ideological or party lines, but the allure of consolidation seems to be prevailing.
I’d very very curious if Europe does reconcile with Russia and create a “Lisbon to Vladivostok” civilizational understanding. I do think it’s up in the air. One benefit of the current state of affairs in the Russia vs. West Cold War is that Russia’s human capital no longer flees to countries like Germany, etc and its wealthy are forced to reinvest in Russia. The new normal may be preferable long term.
What I find interesting is the Musk / Trump are promoting the political parties who are most open to Europe reconciling with Russia. Perhaps this is part of a mid-term plan to pull Russia away from China? But I think it will take at least a decade to cleanse all the anti-Russian brainwashing out of the collective European mindset.
One of the biggest own-goals the West scored was in attacking Russian oligarchs and demonizing Russians in general, which impacted the anti-Russian liberal classes in St. Petersburg, etc. Russian oligarchs were the greatest enemy Russia has ever faced. They were draining the nation of capital and then spreading this Russian wealth in the Côte d'Azur and West London. By appropriating Russian oligarchic wealth, the West forced them back to mother Russia, where they are forced to reinvest their capital into growing the Russian economy.
The worst type of Western colonialism is the brain-drain operations which capture the best of brightest of semi-peripheral nations. If there is eventually a thaw in Russian relations with the West, then unfortunately the oligarchs and liberals will see an opening to once again undermine the Russian economy.
Spot on.
I’m still stunned at your perspective of the “dueling oligarchs”. So obvious and yet so difficult to put it together for the average person (even to the well-read ones I suspect).
The concept originates from Jeffrey A. Winters' book Oligarchy. At its core, it emphasizes that people shouldn't view themselves as passive political subjects but as active agents capable of influencing power dynamics—even attempting to play divide-and-rule with the oligarchy. The challenge, however, is that oligarchs are not foolish like the masses often are. They understand the critical importance of unity to maintain their dominance. This is evident as we see oligarchs increasingly aligning with Trump, abandoning the partisan divides that once appeared to fragment their ranks. My hope was that they would remain divided along ideological or party lines, but the allure of consolidation seems to be prevailing.
Yeah I can see that. Interestingly, Caitlin Johnstone wrote a piece somewhat along these lines the other day.
Very intriguing reconfiguration of the geopolitical chessboard.
Thanks Nicholas!