As Ukrainian defensive lines crack, hardliners in Ukraine, EU and US want to push Russia over the brink. They hope to launch an escalatory spiral that results in a full-scale US armed intervention
"This series of U.S. humiliations emboldened the Soviets, leading them to deploy long-range nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter any future American invasion attempts"
Iirc, the US 1st installed nukes in, I think, Turkey. Ostensibly to "protect" the middle east. But reportedly aimed at Moscow .
It's a situation where chronology matters. It shows, once again, that the US was the aggressor, nit USSR.
I was 7 years old at the time. We had drills, initially hiding under our desks. Then apparently somebody woke up & instead we would march into the main halls & sit in the floor lined up along the cinder block, windowless walls.
In my youth I read nearly every book about the JFK assassination and I don't remember this hypothesis ever being presented. Who knows? I'll have to look into it. Are there any books or articles you would recommend?
I cried when Finland and Sweden suddenly became EU countries. Sure enough, US bases are being built along the Finnish border. More money for the MIC, they don't care about 500,000 dead, and a million disabled Ukrainians. In a country without rehabilitation hospitals, orthopedics and prosthetics. It's a crime against humanity, and TPTB ought to be jailed for life.
I lived in Sweden for a few years in the early 90's just as the profound neoliberal changes were starting to transform the country. But even back then they hated the Russians! There are reports that a number of Swedes were killed or wounded recently in Poltava, Ukraine. And so at a microscopic scale, Sweden will experience the hell of war that you describe the Ukrainian living through every day.
It's sure seems that it's been in the works for a long time, hasn't it? An empire needs perpual enemies. Btw I meant NATO countries not EU. Now the US is putting bases in. Gotta feed the MIC beast!
Good article. Yes the US supported ultra-nationalists in Ukraine are going to get increasingly desperate as time goes on. They are already working on and launching more long range drones and other strike munitions. They really have no choice as their survival is at stake. Maintaining defence in the Donbass is just buying a little more time before certain defeat
Thanks. I was trying to expand on our conversation from the last piece and exploring ways hardliners can bring the West in but at this point it seems hopeless for Ukraine. What becomes interesting is how the endgame will play out. A traditional surrender / armistice like the Winter War against Finland? Fight to the bitter end like the Confederacy? Or follow the Free French model and set up a government in exile in London?
Yes you did a great job of expanding on the escalation scenario. I have a feeling it will end up like previous US installed governments. Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Cuba, Afghanistan etc all provide likely scenarios.
Imo the moat likey scenario unless western intervention can be orchestrated, will be a collapse of the AFU and right wing militias at some point after which the govt and right sector types will flee.
Whatever parts of Ukraine don't rejoin the Russian Federation will be under a pro Russian puppet government. There really isn't any other option that meets Russian security requirements of no hostile forces in Ukraine.
My personal opinion is its highly likely the west continues to escalate qnd provoke & russia ends up having to fight through further west to anchor its borders in more defensive geography. As we can see with the Kursk stunt it's extremely hard to defend such a long open border. Russia has historically ended up in the vistula/ gap / river on the north European plain and in the bessarabian gap down south. This are the two narrowest points where defense is much easier.
Thanks. Yes, that's a great summary you have provided. I'm reading about heightened tensions between Zelensky and Biden/Harris. Trump has tacked more towards the dove side with Vance, Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard. I don't see how Zelensky can generate much pressure in the elections season since the pro-Ukraine crowd would never consider voting for Trump, who they fear more than a Ukrainian defeat.
Thoughts on trumps statements he can solve the issue? Imo the issue can only be solved by a new european security architecture. I'm not impressed by trumps rhetoric or confident he will do much to reign in the US MIC / bureaucracy.
I may be cynical but I can't see the US / west abandoning it's position & accepting mulipolarity without a fight.
Absolutely. What I'm talking about is that Ukraine will not be able to manipulate Trump into attacking Biden for not providing long range missiles. It's an axiom that every politician says what needs to be said to get elected and once in office will do whatever they are pressured to do by their bosses, the donors.
However, the one undeniable difference between Trump and Harris is that only Trump has the potential to address the U.S. military’s recruitment and morale issues. The best American soldiers come from the demographic groups that form Trump’s base. In contrast, Harris’ supporters are not typically aligned with the warrior ethos, and her victory would likely deepen the alienation felt by the traditional warrior class in the U.S.
A Harris victory divides the people, a Trump victory divides the ruling class.
Young men of draft age must think very carefully about this choice!!
In one of my earlier pieces—Primal Parity—I contrasted two leadership types that an America in decline could adopt: a "Primal Father" who embodies the current model of aggressive foreign policy, or a "bon père de famille" who oversees and manages global economic competition, tacitly accepts multipolarity, and is aware that China will eventually emerge as the most powerful nation.
I agree with you that neither candidate is ready to abandon US hegemony and reject the Primal Father mode just yet.
Thanks. That's what I try to do is look at things from a different perspective. Sometimes it takes a while for me to find that unique point of view! I didn't realize they occurred on the same day. It will be interesting to read the stories that come out on the 26th.
Interesting analysis and seems pretty on the money. Yeah I was quite supportive of trump initially as I saw him as possibly being a change from the uniparty neoliberal rule. But he didn't do much. Off to look up your prior analysis. I must have missed that one. 👍👍
"This series of U.S. humiliations emboldened the Soviets, leading them to deploy long-range nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter any future American invasion attempts"
Iirc, the US 1st installed nukes in, I think, Turkey. Ostensibly to "protect" the middle east. But reportedly aimed at Moscow .
The USSR installed nukes in Cuba in response.
Yes, I could have mentioned the chronology better on that issue
It's a situation where chronology matters. It shows, once again, that the US was the aggressor, nit USSR.
I was 7 years old at the time. We had drills, initially hiding under our desks. Then apparently somebody woke up & instead we would march into the main halls & sit in the floor lined up along the cinder block, windowless walls.
JFK was done by the Mossad in conjunction with friendly rogue elements of the CIA.
In my youth I read nearly every book about the JFK assassination and I don't remember this hypothesis ever being presented. Who knows? I'll have to look into it. Are there any books or articles you would recommend?
I cried when Finland and Sweden suddenly became EU countries. Sure enough, US bases are being built along the Finnish border. More money for the MIC, they don't care about 500,000 dead, and a million disabled Ukrainians. In a country without rehabilitation hospitals, orthopedics and prosthetics. It's a crime against humanity, and TPTB ought to be jailed for life.
I lived in Sweden for a few years in the early 90's just as the profound neoliberal changes were starting to transform the country. But even back then they hated the Russians! There are reports that a number of Swedes were killed or wounded recently in Poltava, Ukraine. And so at a microscopic scale, Sweden will experience the hell of war that you describe the Ukrainian living through every day.
The swedes still haven't gotten over losing the first battle of poltava
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Poltava
It's sure seems that it's been in the works for a long time, hasn't it? An empire needs perpual enemies. Btw I meant NATO countries not EU. Now the US is putting bases in. Gotta feed the MIC beast!
Good article. Yes the US supported ultra-nationalists in Ukraine are going to get increasingly desperate as time goes on. They are already working on and launching more long range drones and other strike munitions. They really have no choice as their survival is at stake. Maintaining defence in the Donbass is just buying a little more time before certain defeat
Thanks. I was trying to expand on our conversation from the last piece and exploring ways hardliners can bring the West in but at this point it seems hopeless for Ukraine. What becomes interesting is how the endgame will play out. A traditional surrender / armistice like the Winter War against Finland? Fight to the bitter end like the Confederacy? Or follow the Free French model and set up a government in exile in London?
Yes you did a great job of expanding on the escalation scenario. I have a feeling it will end up like previous US installed governments. Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Cuba, Afghanistan etc all provide likely scenarios.
Imo the moat likey scenario unless western intervention can be orchestrated, will be a collapse of the AFU and right wing militias at some point after which the govt and right sector types will flee.
Whatever parts of Ukraine don't rejoin the Russian Federation will be under a pro Russian puppet government. There really isn't any other option that meets Russian security requirements of no hostile forces in Ukraine.
My personal opinion is its highly likely the west continues to escalate qnd provoke & russia ends up having to fight through further west to anchor its borders in more defensive geography. As we can see with the Kursk stunt it's extremely hard to defend such a long open border. Russia has historically ended up in the vistula/ gap / river on the north European plain and in the bessarabian gap down south. This are the two narrowest points where defense is much easier.
We will see I guess.
Thanks. Yes, that's a great summary you have provided. I'm reading about heightened tensions between Zelensky and Biden/Harris. Trump has tacked more towards the dove side with Vance, Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard. I don't see how Zelensky can generate much pressure in the elections season since the pro-Ukraine crowd would never consider voting for Trump, who they fear more than a Ukrainian defeat.
Thoughts on trumps statements he can solve the issue? Imo the issue can only be solved by a new european security architecture. I'm not impressed by trumps rhetoric or confident he will do much to reign in the US MIC / bureaucracy.
I may be cynical but I can't see the US / west abandoning it's position & accepting mulipolarity without a fight.
Absolutely. What I'm talking about is that Ukraine will not be able to manipulate Trump into attacking Biden for not providing long range missiles. It's an axiom that every politician says what needs to be said to get elected and once in office will do whatever they are pressured to do by their bosses, the donors.
However, the one undeniable difference between Trump and Harris is that only Trump has the potential to address the U.S. military’s recruitment and morale issues. The best American soldiers come from the demographic groups that form Trump’s base. In contrast, Harris’ supporters are not typically aligned with the warrior ethos, and her victory would likely deepen the alienation felt by the traditional warrior class in the U.S.
A Harris victory divides the people, a Trump victory divides the ruling class.
Young men of draft age must think very carefully about this choice!!
In one of my earlier pieces—Primal Parity—I contrasted two leadership types that an America in decline could adopt: a "Primal Father" who embodies the current model of aggressive foreign policy, or a "bon père de famille" who oversees and manages global economic competition, tacitly accepts multipolarity, and is aware that China will eventually emerge as the most powerful nation.
I agree with you that neither candidate is ready to abandon US hegemony and reject the Primal Father mode just yet.
Very insightful - always a good angle that none else covers.
A useless fun-fact: the NS2 bombing happened on a September 26 as well (just like the narrowly avoided nuclear missile lunch) …
Thanks. That's what I try to do is look at things from a different perspective. Sometimes it takes a while for me to find that unique point of view! I didn't realize they occurred on the same day. It will be interesting to read the stories that come out on the 26th.
Interesting analysis and seems pretty on the money. Yeah I was quite supportive of trump initially as I saw him as possibly being a change from the uniparty neoliberal rule. But he didn't do much. Off to look up your prior analysis. I must have missed that one. 👍👍