Prigozhin's Failed "Columbine"
Wagner opera cancelled during its first act.
Wagner oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Plan A was to capture his hated rivals, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov at the Southern Military District’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don. In the rebel-Wagner faction’s rush to capture this base, several loyal Russian aircraft were shot down and between 13-20 pilots were killed. This uprising was deadly serious and not a ruse or psy-op.
Prigozhin’s Plan A failed, as both Shoigu and Gerasimov escaped capture. Wagner was only able to detain Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alexeyev, who were then held hostage. This failure led to a hurried Plan B, a “protest march” on Moscow which was never serious and only served as a cover for Prigozhin’s surrender negotiations. If a proper coup d’etat had been planned, Wagner would have attempted to rush into Moscow simultaneously with their storming of Rostov-on-Don. Wagner had no air power but did possess formidable air defense systems and so the factor of speed and surprise was essential for any hypothetical penetration into Moscow. Nevertheless exposed columns of Wagner vehicles on an open civilian highway are sitting ducks for Russian aviation. Had these columns ever posed a serious threat to the Russian government, the Highway of Death scenes from the first Iraq War would have been repeated.
And so my preferred lens through which to view Prigozhin’s Putsch is that of a suicidal “school shooting.” A mentally unstable man, about to lose all his power, together with his close partner Dmitry Utkin, lashed out at his perceived enemies. Together they formed a sort of Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold pairing and executed their “Columbine” school shooting by attempting to capture and kill their hated rivals, Shoigu and Gerasimov.
Prigozhin (and Utkin) were pushed into taking their fatal action by what they saw as a hostile state takeover of PMC Wagner. On June 10th, Russia's Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that all “volunteer detachments” fighting in Ukraine must sign contracts with the MoD before July 1. Not only would he lose PMC Wagner, but this would also entail Prigozhin losing his precious contracts with the Russian military, which formed the basis of his oligarchic power.
This MoD order coincided with the Russian Army’s successful defense against Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive in the Zaporizhizhia region. As the Wall Street Journal described it, attacking Ukrainian forces were decimated by a Russian “wall of steel.” One reading is that Russia’s regular military’s success on the battlefield gave the MoD the confidence to take on PMC Wagner, which over the past six months had been the best performing Russian force in Ukraine.
As explained in Quelling the Fire in Ukraine, Ukraine’s overriding strategic goal is to escape the Russian-imposed war of attrition by breaking through to the Sea of Azov and thus flipping to a fast-moving war of manouvre. But the reality is that Ukraine is badly outmatched and possesses little-to-no air power. And so Ukraine and the West remain boxed into a slow and costly war of attrition. Ukraine recently announced preparations for a general mobilizations of all military-aged men in three regions. At the same time Ukraine’s Western backers have shown little enthusiasm towards the supply of aircraft needed to even attempt a breakthrough into Russia’s echeloned defense barriers protecting the land bridge to Crimea. At this point Russia can claim a strategic victory by maintaining the war of attrition model, a paradigm the West is desperate to escape.
Over the past several months, tensions have been rising between the Russian MoD and Prigozhin, the figurehead leader of PMC Wagner. In early 2023, Wagner performed in a spectacular fashion by taking the heavily fortified “Fortress Bakhmut” and creating a “meat grinder” for Ukrainian defenders. But as so often happens, success on the battlefield went to Prigozhin’s head. Prigozhin started a rhetorical war against Shoigu and Gerasimov. Many Russian observers claimed his increasingly deraigned outbursts were intentional psy-ops designed to encourage Ukrainian defenders to launch disastrous offensives in Bakhmut. But the more obvious conclusion was that he was losing his sanity.
After capturing Bakhmut, from Prigozhin’s twisted oligarchic point of view, the beautiful capitalist killing machine he had created was about to be nationalized and incorporated into Russia’s socialist armed forces. Prigozhin is a promoter, a huckster, a modern day W.C. Fields, but not a military man. After serving prison time for robbery in his youth, he got his start by opening a hot dog stand. He eventually bought supermarkets, gambling establishments, and then restaurants. In time he obtained lucrative catering contracts from the Russian government. He was named as the figurehead leader of Wagner, to help cover its deeper roots within the Russian covert-ops intelligence milieu and to deflect accusations of neo-Nazi sympathies against its true founder, Dmitry Utkin.
At the height of his unhinged outbursts about ammunition shortages, the spectre of a march on Moscow was actually raised in a April 29, 2023 interview with Prigozhin, by the popular Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov. Known as War Gonzo, Pegov pointed out that perhaps the MoD was reluctant to supply ammunition to Prigozhin because he would then use it to march on Moscow:
Semyon Pegov: Ammunition is not given to you because you supposedly can deploy artillery on Moscow—go to storm the Kremlin, and so on. These are the fears, how pointless are they?
Prigozhin: We will go to Moscow?
Semyon Pegov: They seem to justify that, PMC Wagner, they have already achieved such autonomy, Prigozhin has such political ambitions, now he will take this private army of his, deploy and seize power in Russia.
Prigozhin: Semyon, look, about the march to Moscow, it’s an interesting idea but we did not think about it.
The problem for Prigozhin and a march on Moscow was that Wagner are totally dependent on the Russian MoD for supplies. Logistics win wars and so with no supply lines of food, water, ammunition, and fuel, not to mention a lack of airpower, the only successful march on Moscow would need to be lightening quick. But instead of Moscow, Prigozhin launched his mini-Blitzkrieg against the Southern Military District’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.
Shoigu and Gerasimov in Context
Russia invaded Ukraine by playing “political” war. Given that both Russia and Ukraine are oligarchies, and oligarchs have the most to lose in a war, there was much speculation that an agreement had already been worked out between the two sides before the war started. Russia just needed to put on a grand display of power to give the Ukrainian politicians cover for making a deal. This idea is backed by the Istanbul Accords, which the Russian and Ukrainian sides negotiated within the second month of the war. If the deal had come to fruition, Ukraine would have stayed neutral by renouncing any ambitions to join NATO. In addition, Russian officers would have sat on the Ukrainian national security council. The size of Ukraine’s military would be strictly limited, but defense guarantees would be given by the US, UK, France, and Russia. In return, Russia would retreat to the February 24, 2022 lines and the status of Crimea would be finessed for 15 years.
In order to create the political conditions to convince the Ukrainian people such a deal was necessary, Russia surrounded Kiev and grabbed much territory in north eastern Ukraine. There had been other deals with several big city mayors in Ukraine to immediately surrender their cities to the Russians. The Ukrainian secret services got wind of these deals and stepped in in several cities to stop the surrender process. In the end only Kherson followed through.
Once Ukraine tentatively agreed to the Istanbul Accords, Russia withdrew from Kiev and the Sumy regions. But according to several sources, including former Israeli Prime Minister Bennett, Boris Johnson vetoed the agreement and ordered Ukraine to keep fighting. Apparently Biden was on the fence and let Johnson decide. France and Germany preferred the peace agreement.
Johnson was just doing his best Churchill imitation, but there were reasons to believe continuing the war was a good move for the West. Wars are generally not won on the battlefield but are decided in the economic realm. The goal of NATO expansion was to break the Russian economy with shock and awe sanctions, and to force Russia into Western dependency.
Gerasimov is often blamed for this “political war” plan. But had it succeeded many lives would have been saved. Besides, the Russian leadership also feared sanctions. And so Putin initially executed the war in as economical a way possible. After the collapse of the Istanbul Accords, Russia had chronic manpower shortages, especially in the Kharkov region. And by grabbing Kherson, Russia was left in an unstable position due to a lack of natural defense barriers. Logistics were difficult and there was always the fear of the Kakhovka Dam being destroyed, which would have stranded tens of thousands of Russian troops on the wrong side of the Dnieper.
Until the Russian arms industry started producing, and until they were sure its economy could weather the sanction storm, Russia had to fall back to a minimalist war effort. During the Ukrainian offensive of late summer 2022, Russia only had skeleton crews up north and so lost the important cities of Izium and Lyman. In Kherson the Russians pulled back to the Crimean side of the Dnieper. Such setbacks created anger within the Russian public. Shoigu and Gerasimov became lightning rods of criticism and many in Russia even dared to call Putin soft and too afraid of the West. Prigozhin took advantage of these sentiments to advance his own personal agenda.
Aftermath
Despite attempts to portrait rogue Wagner’s “Columbine” stunt as relatively bloodless, there were serious losses for the Russian Airforce:
Russian Telegram channels are reporting that Prigozhin has apologized for these deaths and will pay each dead pilot’s family 50 million Rubles (around $700,000). On the other hand, there was little to no ground combat, which was particularly fortuitous since the Chechen Akhmat commando units rushed to Rostov-on-Don to confront the Wagner rebellion.
At the time of writing, both Shoigu and Gerasimov are still in their positions. Prigozhin, who was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don, and was reported as going into exile in Belarus, has gone to ground and has not been seen for the past 24 hours. It is highly likely he is currently being interrogated by Russian intelligence. He lost all leverage by leaving Rostov-on-Don and there is no reason to believe that he will gain anything from this stunt. The very best Prigozhin can hope for is exile for his family as it is very likely he will be executed and have his fortune appropriated. The fact that he launched such an unlikely uprising while leaving his wife and three grown children in St. Petersburg gives credulous to this entire opera being a suicidal grasp for infamy by an unhinged man and his partner.
The immediate impact on Russia may be some uneasiness from their geopolitical partners. The US has been making a diplomatic effort with both China and India in the runup to what will inevitably be peace talks this autumn. From a military perspective, it is now Russia who may wish to turn this war of attrition into a war of manouvre by making large land grabs at the expense of an increasingly demoralized Ukraine. With the Russian economy performing well, the fear of sanctions is past. It is highly unlikely the US made any progress turning China and India against Russia. Incorporating Wagner units into the regular Russian forces will give this offensive potential a boost. This in turn will give Ukraine and the West a strong impetus to negotiate peace.
Great article. Thank you for sharing.
This article made many pieces of the puzzle come together to form an image. Thanks.