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Feral Finster's avatar

You can bet your last euro that the european jackals are whispering in Trump's ear that this shows that Russia would be a pushover, don't be a chicken, come on, do it!

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Kevin Batcho's avatar

Yes and it's even more certain that Netanyahu is whispering similar things in Trump's ear about Iran. It's like letting a budding gambler win a few small hands in order to convince him to go all in on a big one.

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Nicholas Gilani's avatar

As an Iranian-American, I would not like anything more than an overthrow of the regime in Tehran—by hook or crook, my friend, Kevin’s views notwithstanding. 47-years of pure Hell imposed on Iran and Iranians by corrupt, ruthless and duplicitous Shiite clerics.

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Kevin Batcho's avatar

I understand the desperation. Life under the clerics is its own kind of hell. But we have to be clear-eyed about what comes next. If it’s Israel / U.S. that gains control, they will not be building a Shiite version of the UAE in its place. They have no interest in a strong, unified Iran.

A better guide for what they might actually prefer is something like Israel’s old Yinon Plan—a strategy for fracturing the region into weaker, manageable pieces. Look at the current states of Syria or Libya: fragmented zones of perpetual civil war and internal strife. That’s the more likely blueprint, not prosperity.

In my view, the best chance for a prosperous Iran would be a pragmatic, internal rebuilding process, undertaken under the protective umbrella of powers like Russia and China—forces that have no desire to break the country apart, even if their motives aren’t pure either.

The painful truth is that the clerics and the neocons need each other. Some of the current unrest is authentic, born of real suffering. Some of it is undoubtedly curated by Mossad or the CIA. It’s a tangled mess. And the moment Netanyahu starts bombing Iran again—which he will—all those protesters will be forced back into the loving arms of the mullahs for survival. And the whole grim cycle starts anew.

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Finn Andreen's avatar

Yes, but : a large part of this hell comes from US sanctions and even interdiction for European of doing business there (remember the 9 bln BNP Parisbas punishment?).

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Nicholas Gilani's avatar

I don’t think so. I have dealt with those clerical bastards. They have turned the country into 1) toilet (destruction is the countryside and the pristine environment), 2) bedroom (all manners of earthly corruption against which they shout hypocritically in sermons) and 3) kitchen (sanctions-based dollar fixing and then Dubai-Toronto-Moscow bank accounts).

These clerics and their IRGC must be annihilated. A good Iranian Shiite cleric = a dead Iranian Shiite cleric

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Finn Andreen's avatar

ok, thanks for your info.

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Nicholas Gilani's avatar

If Israel bombs these pests, so be it.

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Nicholas Gilani's avatar

The clerics started the war against America and Israel as well as all signs of modernity with their medieval savagery. Vietnam got bombed to the smithereens yet became a top reading partner of the U.S. since 1979 these clerical and their erstwhile leftists partners yelled anti-imperialistic slogans and in the process a nation that in 1978 was well on its to becoming a South Korea.

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Nicholas Gilani's avatar

Panchita, Iran has been going through a destruction cycle since 1979. Don’t make sweeping statements about a nation, which you don’t seem to have ever been. “White” has no connotation in Iran because we don’t go by the color of skin ; it has historically no resonance.

What we get riled about is the hypocrisy of men of God! From a religious Islamic country, we have liberated ourselves to a deeply secular one where a visit to a mosque is only to relieve ourselves and not for so-called prayers.

Please check in your anti “yankee” diatribes at the door when engaging in a discussion about Iran!

We are the FiFo nation: First in, first out of Islamic fascism.

Try the anti-imperialist rambling somewhere else. We have suffered enough.

Postscript: We are like the Poles who endured 44 years of Communism. They tried being good “comrades” and at the end settled on being “friends” when addressing one another. Islamic “brothers and sisters” is expired and rotten intellectual food.

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Panchita's avatar

what a wonderful example of a "holy-faced opposition". We know people like you from Russia, Venezuela, Iran. Always wanting the death and destruction for your own country, always hoping that the big white master will make you a warden and you will thrive on your homeland´s ashes

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The Voice Of Virtue's avatar

Outstanding analysis; greatly appreciated. I would be inclined to concur on all material points.

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Kevin Batcho's avatar

Thank you very much!

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Finn Andreen's avatar

Excellent review of the situation, Kevin, I fully agree, with you (as usual I would say). About " the place is ripe for insurgency." You are right, because there are some signs that chavista miliicias are being called up by new Pres. Delcy Rodriguez, and might be squaring off against the police and military that are under (tenuous?) control of Cabello and Padrino, the two die-hard chavistas. The question is on which side they are on ; but it seems they are firmly against US maduro gambit, as there is now a price tag on their arrests : 25 and 15 millions USD respectively. Let's see.

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Neural Foundry's avatar

The Potemkin analogy is perfect for whats happening here - all spectacle with minimal substance. Your observation about Trump coming from pro wrestling really crystalizes how he operates, every move is choreagraphed for maximum drama but minimum actual comittment. I hadnt thought about it as a warning shot to Iran but that makes total sense given the economics dont work for a real occupation. The prerogative of strength argument strips away all the liberal pretense and thats honestly refreshing even if its disturbing.

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Kevin Batcho's avatar

Thanks. The over-the-top colonial realist rhetoric is in a way a sort of false narrative to cover what is actually a very modest and careful intervention. The problem is that dopamine hit for Trump from this will be addictive and he will start hitting his own propaganda supply and start taking larger risks.

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