Mar 4, 2023·edited Mar 4, 2023Liked by Kevin Batcho
Something else to note which you touched on a bit too is that land powers tend to take major hits and go through big crises and huge devastation, yet despite that persist long-term if they are above a certain size (Sparta was too small). Russia, China and Iran are all still there, thousands of years later in the case of the latter two, and are serious powers, just as they have been historically
While maritime powers come and ago, and often fall apart.
>all five global leaders have been maritime powers
The notable thing here is that only one of them, the current leader, is a major power now. And even Britain wasn't saved by being an island.
Now it's hard to conceive a world in which the US is not a major power, it is just too big. But if it actually falls apart, who knows. The USSR did fall apart after all...
Your point on the durability of continental powers is a very important point. Sea power is ephemeral, featuring tiny overachievers (pre-US) while land power is permanent. What I am trying to build towards is an idea of hybrid powers, which is where both Russia-China and the US are heading. Russia-China will attempt to further develop their maritime potentials and the US may pullback at some point from global power to be a regional continental power. This type of sudden withdrawal of American power from the global order will certainly cause serious problems. It would create an interregnum crisis period which would be unpredictable and a bit dangerous for everyone.
Something else to note which you touched on a bit too is that land powers tend to take major hits and go through big crises and huge devastation, yet despite that persist long-term if they are above a certain size (Sparta was too small). Russia, China and Iran are all still there, thousands of years later in the case of the latter two, and are serious powers, just as they have been historically
While maritime powers come and ago, and often fall apart.
>all five global leaders have been maritime powers
The notable thing here is that only one of them, the current leader, is a major power now. And even Britain wasn't saved by being an island.
Now it's hard to conceive a world in which the US is not a major power, it is just too big. But if it actually falls apart, who knows. The USSR did fall apart after all...
Your point on the durability of continental powers is a very important point. Sea power is ephemeral, featuring tiny overachievers (pre-US) while land power is permanent. What I am trying to build towards is an idea of hybrid powers, which is where both Russia-China and the US are heading. Russia-China will attempt to further develop their maritime potentials and the US may pullback at some point from global power to be a regional continental power. This type of sudden withdrawal of American power from the global order will certainly cause serious problems. It would create an interregnum crisis period which would be unpredictable and a bit dangerous for everyone.