In other words you agree with me that Macron is engaged in the first scenario of the four that I describe above. There's a reason I put that one first...
But you yourself seem to be saying that he is psoing for the elections and that this move is NOT helping him in the polls and only helps the opposition. Threatening to send people's sons to Ukraine is not likely to be a super popular position. Perhaps Macron calculates that posing as a hero will produce more votes than take away. It is very possible then that he is indeed doing the first scenario and at the same time is making an electoral mistake in doing so.
1) The French army, 35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is only capable of holding an 80 km front for 2 weeks.
2) It has become specialized in overseas operations, using fast, light, airborne equipment against irregular troops.
3) No one believes that Macron would be so inept as to put it up against Russian troops battle-hardened to this type of warfare over the past 2 years.
5) Logically, the extreme right must make a breakthrough in the elections, but it's a matter of portraying himself as a commander-in-chief and presenting them as Russian-friendly traitors.
I agree politics is his primary motivation, which is why I put that as my first option. But I also think it is a stupid strategy that will backfire on him.
Sorry, but it's impossible to be further from the truth.
Macron had just suffered several humiliations on the French domestic political scene.
He has classically diverted public attention by playing the commander in chief in foreign policy.
His declarations were mainly caused by domestic political problems.
he knows that public opinion and other Europeans won't support him. He's just blowing hot air.
The June elections are going to be a disaster for him, but the press isn't talking about it any more.
In other words you agree with me that Macron is engaged in the first scenario of the four that I describe above. There's a reason I put that one first...
"which frankly doesn't make much sense."
You put this hypothesis first, only to discard it...
But you yourself seem to be saying that he is psoing for the elections and that this move is NOT helping him in the polls and only helps the opposition. Threatening to send people's sons to Ukraine is not likely to be a super popular position. Perhaps Macron calculates that posing as a hero will produce more votes than take away. It is very possible then that he is indeed doing the first scenario and at the same time is making an electoral mistake in doing so.
1) The French army, 35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, is only capable of holding an 80 km front for 2 weeks.
2) It has become specialized in overseas operations, using fast, light, airborne equipment against irregular troops.
3) No one believes that Macron would be so inept as to put it up against Russian troops battle-hardened to this type of warfare over the past 2 years.
5) Logically, the extreme right must make a breakthrough in the elections, but it's a matter of portraying himself as a commander-in-chief and presenting them as Russian-friendly traitors.
I agree politics is his primary motivation, which is why I put that as my first option. But I also think it is a stupid strategy that will backfire on him.