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Thucycidean's avatar

Excellent post. Better than the note I just put up last night on the West Bank (which is probably another front, tho subsumed into the Gazan War from a global perspective). My only quibble is I think none of Iran, Russia, or China want to be the first to get into a direct shooting war with the U.S. -- a CSG may (or may not) be vulnerable to hypersonic missiles these days, but no one wants to bear the brunt of a major assault by unbloodied U.S. forces, correctly so. The U.S. can break a *lot* of things even if they cannot sustain it for long.

As you note, I rather think this is a global attrition strategy - it is Ukraine writ large. Russia and Iran (and China) have seen how well Europe & the U.S. have waged a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine; they intend to symmetrically do the same in the Middle East. Hence Iran's loud and vociferous warning not to attack Iran itself. Their plan is to slowly widen the war into Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, the Gulf, Red Sea (?), and to enjoy the benefits of an increasingly enraged Arab populace. With enough time, pro-U.S. governments could fall, or at least drastically moderate their behavior (look at Jordan).

And yes, the goal is to use up as much boutique weapons stocks as possible (though there are *lots* of warehouses in the U.S. so they will in no way be emptied), force the West to spend billions $ to keep navies and air forces at sea/active, enjoy the benefits of time, and see how much financial, economic, and indeed military pressure can be put on the West while at the same time preventing a major power war for as long as possible.

Suwalki, Korea, or Taiwan are all too dangerous right now, and for the foreseeable future. I don't see those being triggered unless one side or the other makes a serious mistake or deliberately steps up the escalatory ladder.

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Peti Bacsi's avatar

Very good article. Thank you.

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