As in all assessments, I get that you get more speculative the further out you get. Still, I very much doubt a Suwalki gap assault would take place until either Taiwan was underway or NATO defunct. Too risky to be left holding the bag after an article 5 response. But just overtly threatening such a thing, there or anywhere along the front, might serve the same purpose.

I do think even pondering what happens after Ukraine is defeated in a year or three is very difficult, let alone 30 years from now. I do agree that Biden's decisions to force the war in Ukraine in the first place (c. 2021), will be seen as the disastrous pivot point that set the world on this path.

Great article and nicely done.

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I truly enjoyed reading this. Great perspective(s). Look forward to your next article. Thank you.

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