The Franco-Prussian War of 1870-1 and the US Civil War both offer hints and glimpses of how the Ukraine War may conclude: either France's negotiated humiliation or the South's total collapse.
There have been doubts about Ukranian state capacity before war, there have been doubts during corruption scandal and for four years I have been reading about "slow grinding" down of Ukranian army. In 19 days the fifth year of war will begin. Franco-Prussian war lasted 10 months, American civil war lasted little short of 4 years, and there were clear breaking points, it being Battle of Sedan and Gettysburg.
The mechanics of a war of attrition can be understood through the failure of a steel beam. Initial loads produce only minor, almost imperceptible deflections. These are the modest, grinding advances. As the load increases, however, internal stresses accumulate within the material. The structure enters a critical phase where its capacity for elastic recovery is exhausted; it begins to deform plastically. At this point, each additional increment of stress produces disproportionate deformation, leading rapidly to total structural collapse.
The strategic question mirrors the physical one: can Russia sustain the mounting pressure, and is Ukrainian resistance progressing toward that failure point? The available evidence suggests affirmative answers in both cases. If Ukrainian forces are indeed approaching that plastic phase, where resilience gives way to permanent deformation, then Russia's prior rate of advance becomes irrelevant. The final collapse, whenever it arrives, will be dictated by military physics, which does not care about yesterday’s incremental gains.
Great comparison. The only thing is that Russia may well be at it maximum load or past it, so that no additional pressure may be applied.
Recruitment numbers have fallen well below the needed replenishment rate, economic ressources, both civil and military, are at their full capacity, with both civil and military sectors being deeply indenbted, housing market is pretty much ready to burst. Oil is cheap, budget is in deep red, with no liquid reserves left.
On Ukraine there is much less information, but given that despite Russian unprecedent areal strikes it still functions, with winter being close to finish, I think this phase of conflict it again withstood, despite much more additional pressure having been applied
The argument that the Russian war effort has peaked and is therefore past its culmination point is only valid if the numbers back it up. Obviously both sides have a motive to manipulate the numbers so what we have will be hazy at best.
On recruitment, in 2025 Russia signed more than 400,000 new contracts. The other side of this is an estimation of Russian losses, which besides the fevered ramblings of the British media, are probably less than 200,000 dead for the entire conflict. And remember, Russia has not even turned to conscription yet, meaning they have a huge margin on manpower.
Russia is spending roughly 5% of GDP on the war in Ukraine, this is not much of a strain, during WW2 the Soviets spent roughly 60% of GDP on the war effort. In fact, Russia is nowhere near full capacity since they are holding back due to the risk of a full scale war with NATO in the future.
Russia's pubic debt is 16% of GDP, which is absurdly low by international standards. Corporate debt is rising, yet is still relatively low. Interest rates are super high at 21% but inflation seems under control and so rates should reduce. Fairly normal economic impacts for a nation at war. Russia has huge amounts of fiscal space, which I doubt they are particularly interested in using.
Russia holds more than $800 billion in central bank reserves, much of it in gold, which is highly liquid nowadays. Oil may be about to skyrocket if the US attacks Iran and they close the Straits of Hormuz. Besides even with oil cheap, it does not have much impact, Russia is not living "pay check to pay check."
Russia's housing sector is under pressure, prices are rising, supply diminishing and mortgage rates are super high, but this is nothing fatal, the West's housing markets feature similar issues.
Run this same analysis on Ukraine and you will see why this war will inevitably end in Kiev's collapse.
5% are purely towards war. There are also other expenses involed so overall federal defence budget is 7,1% of GDP+huge bonuses that are paid by regions that, on average, as per Perplexity, 1,5 mil rubles so it's roughly 600 bil rubles or 0,8% of Russian GDP. Altogether around 7,9%.
Regarding Russian losses they are 168k people dead verified from open sources by journalists. So the real number is much, much higher around 200+k + some from militias of Peoples Republics
another 100 bil of currency reserves are undisclosed, so who knows what currencies are in those 100 bil, but most of them are likely to be not-so-great rupies and yuans
In Russian National Wealth Fund out of 180 bil only roughly 53 are liquid
There are also gold reserves that at the end of 2025 were valued at 326 bil, but they are only partially liquid as since 2022 Russia was banned from selling gold in western hubs, which are the main ones, and with risk of reciprocal sanctions must sell the gold the same way it does with oil, i.e. the gray way, with additional costs involved and not in bug quantities. And those 326 bil are that big, to be frank, in large part due to hype and speculation.
Great piece Kevin, with some real gems embedded in your article, like this one: "Where once they saw a nubile, resource-rich bride to be wooed with wealth and arms, they now confront a spent spinster—her liabilities and demands far outweighing her fading assets and promise."
We have the same approach to political writing: it is also literature.
Your conclusion is that we are much more now in the US war between the states kind of war, in Ukraine? I think so too.
To be honest, just throwing a link and expecting that one would immediately understand what you hint at is lack of empathy.
How did I have to understand what you dimension of decimation you implied?
How does this goal of Russia, it being according to you decimation of Ukranian people, relate to the goal of Ukranian state to mobilize more men, i.e. fill army ranks and put up a fight?
We have been hearing these confident predictions of imminent collapse for four years now.
The real plan was ever always only to mousetrap the Americans into intervening. Whether that happens directly or whether the Americans have to bail their european catamites out again is of no consequence.
There have been doubts about Ukranian state capacity before war, there have been doubts during corruption scandal and for four years I have been reading about "slow grinding" down of Ukranian army. In 19 days the fifth year of war will begin. Franco-Prussian war lasted 10 months, American civil war lasted little short of 4 years, and there were clear breaking points, it being Battle of Sedan and Gettysburg.
I just don't see it
The mechanics of a war of attrition can be understood through the failure of a steel beam. Initial loads produce only minor, almost imperceptible deflections. These are the modest, grinding advances. As the load increases, however, internal stresses accumulate within the material. The structure enters a critical phase where its capacity for elastic recovery is exhausted; it begins to deform plastically. At this point, each additional increment of stress produces disproportionate deformation, leading rapidly to total structural collapse.
The strategic question mirrors the physical one: can Russia sustain the mounting pressure, and is Ukrainian resistance progressing toward that failure point? The available evidence suggests affirmative answers in both cases. If Ukrainian forces are indeed approaching that plastic phase, where resilience gives way to permanent deformation, then Russia's prior rate of advance becomes irrelevant. The final collapse, whenever it arrives, will be dictated by military physics, which does not care about yesterday’s incremental gains.
Great comparison. The only thing is that Russia may well be at it maximum load or past it, so that no additional pressure may be applied.
Recruitment numbers have fallen well below the needed replenishment rate, economic ressources, both civil and military, are at their full capacity, with both civil and military sectors being deeply indenbted, housing market is pretty much ready to burst. Oil is cheap, budget is in deep red, with no liquid reserves left.
On Ukraine there is much less information, but given that despite Russian unprecedent areal strikes it still functions, with winter being close to finish, I think this phase of conflict it again withstood, despite much more additional pressure having been applied
The argument that the Russian war effort has peaked and is therefore past its culmination point is only valid if the numbers back it up. Obviously both sides have a motive to manipulate the numbers so what we have will be hazy at best.
On recruitment, in 2025 Russia signed more than 400,000 new contracts. The other side of this is an estimation of Russian losses, which besides the fevered ramblings of the British media, are probably less than 200,000 dead for the entire conflict. And remember, Russia has not even turned to conscription yet, meaning they have a huge margin on manpower.
Russia is spending roughly 5% of GDP on the war in Ukraine, this is not much of a strain, during WW2 the Soviets spent roughly 60% of GDP on the war effort. In fact, Russia is nowhere near full capacity since they are holding back due to the risk of a full scale war with NATO in the future.
Russia's pubic debt is 16% of GDP, which is absurdly low by international standards. Corporate debt is rising, yet is still relatively low. Interest rates are super high at 21% but inflation seems under control and so rates should reduce. Fairly normal economic impacts for a nation at war. Russia has huge amounts of fiscal space, which I doubt they are particularly interested in using.
Russia holds more than $800 billion in central bank reserves, much of it in gold, which is highly liquid nowadays. Oil may be about to skyrocket if the US attacks Iran and they close the Straits of Hormuz. Besides even with oil cheap, it does not have much impact, Russia is not living "pay check to pay check."
Russia's housing sector is under pressure, prices are rising, supply diminishing and mortgage rates are super high, but this is nothing fatal, the West's housing markets feature similar issues.
Run this same analysis on Ukraine and you will see why this war will inevitably end in Kiev's collapse.
5% are purely towards war. There are also other expenses involed so overall federal defence budget is 7,1% of GDP+huge bonuses that are paid by regions that, on average, as per Perplexity, 1,5 mil rubles so it's roughly 600 bil rubles or 0,8% of Russian GDP. Altogether around 7,9%.
Regarding Russian losses they are 168k people dead verified from open sources by journalists. So the real number is much, much higher around 200+k + some from militias of Peoples Republics
https://zona.media/casualties
68% of new housing stock is unsold
https://www.vedomosti.ru/gorod/realestate/news/postroennih-okazalas-nerasprodannoi
Biggest developer in Russia asked for a 50 bil rubles loan from government
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rbc.ru/rbcnews/business/04/02/2026/6983748f9a7947f416c1d5d7
Total reserves are 800 bil dol
300 bil worth of currencies, out of 400 bil, are frozen
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rbc.ru/rbcnews/economics/04/12/2025/693039d49a79478280c66fc3
another 100 bil of currency reserves are undisclosed, so who knows what currencies are in those 100 bil, but most of them are likely to be not-so-great rupies and yuans
In Russian National Wealth Fund out of 180 bil only roughly 53 are liquid
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.interfax.ru/amp/1068516
There are also gold reserves that at the end of 2025 were valued at 326 bil, but they are only partially liquid as since 2022 Russia was banned from selling gold in western hubs, which are the main ones, and with risk of reciprocal sanctions must sell the gold the same way it does with oil, i.e. the gray way, with additional costs involved and not in bug quantities. And those 326 bil are that big, to be frank, in large part due to hype and speculation.
https://www.forbes.ru/investicii/553895-bloomberg-soobsil-o-roste-zolotyh-rezervov-cb-na-216-mlrd-za-vrema-specoperacii
Thus overal liquidity is questionable at best
Great piece Kevin, with some real gems embedded in your article, like this one: "Where once they saw a nubile, resource-rich bride to be wooed with wealth and arms, they now confront a spent spinster—her liabilities and demands far outweighing her fading assets and promise."
We have the same approach to political writing: it is also literature.
Your conclusion is that we are much more now in the US war between the states kind of war, in Ukraine? I think so too.
www.busification.org
does it make Russian advance less glacial?
It's not about advancing.
You clearly never wore a uniform...it's about grinding down the Ukies, in detail, across a front a thousand Km long.
When did Russia state that "advancing" was an aim of the SMO? Advancing is a by-product of decimating Ukraine.
So how does it help decimate Ukraine?
Maybe it would help if you knew what the word "decimate" means, and then took a look at Ukraine's demographic charts for the coming decades.
Or, maybe not..maybe you'll just come back and ask another stupid question.
To be honest, just throwing a link and expecting that one would immediately understand what you hint at is lack of empathy.
How did I have to understand what you dimension of decimation you implied?
How does this goal of Russia, it being according to you decimation of Ukranian people, relate to the goal of Ukranian state to mobilize more men, i.e. fill army ranks and put up a fight?
I ask questions because I see no logic
Excelente!!
¡Gracias totales!
We have been hearing these confident predictions of imminent collapse for four years now.
The real plan was ever always only to mousetrap the Americans into intervening. Whether that happens directly or whether the Americans have to bail their european catamites out again is of no consequence.
Thanks and that's a perfect summary!