Geopolitical Glengarry Glen Ross in Riyadh: Trump’s good-cop piques Russia’s ambitions, luring and looping Putin into a grand bargain—or a grand trap—ever deeper into the maze of the Grand Chessboard.
What is problematic here is the underlying assumption of the infallibility of the process and the mark, in this case Russia and, by extension, the majority of the non-Western world, are going to follow the script and its narrative.
And the reason why is down to cultural bias. The usual shtick of we are the biggest, baddest and bestest. Another variation of Borrell's '"Jungle/Garden" attitude.
Newsflash. The Russians and everyone else are well aware of the various psychological and other approaches of those across the negotiating table. They will most certainly have pre-gamed outcomes and scenarios like this years ago.
A fact clear to a blind man on a galloping horse just from them not taking the time pressure bait of an invitation back into the G-7 - having long decided that that body and its zero-sum, I win-you lose (epitomised by Trump) approach is doomed for the dustbin of history and that they will be at the centre and leading edge of a different approach.
Everything that Trump and the US does or say's will be taken with a large spoonful of salt on the grounds that the historical record clearly demonstrates that the West - Europe as much as the USA, which was founded on European colonisation - is and always will be non-agreement capable. It's in the cultural DNA. And they, as well as everyone else, understand and comprehend this reality.
The Russians are in no hurry. They are winning on the battlefield. They are winning diplomatically. They are winning with those who count. Riyadh, far from being some pressure game controlled by the self-styled mighty Trump and his sycophant hangers on, is merely talks about talks. Setting a framework of a much longer and larger process than the decaying quick win, quick closure culture of the Western elites and their scribes are capable of conceiving.
The confusion as to who it is who is actually in control here is understandable given the limited and limiting cultural context in which it exists and operates.
The goal was to shed light on how the Americans are approaching negotiations, while the opening and closing sections were meant to cast doubt on who truly holds control. In the final section, I strongly suggested that it is, in fact, Russia—thanks to its long historical perspective, the longue durée, rather than short-term maneuvering.
Demystifying Trump’s seemingly chaotic actions is a worthwhile effort. In many of my posts, I explore the Russian way of thinking, because understanding must go both ways. Americans need to grasp the perspectives of the world, just as others must understand America. Empathy is vital in these situations. But by empathy, I do not mean sympathy—because in any struggle, knowing one’s enemy is essential.
Appreciate it! Funny you say "superficial"—I was playing with the idea that sales lives in that tension between surface and depth, appearance and persuasion. Glad the title resonated!
I completely disagree. The three-step process of breaking the script, establishing authority, and creating urgency is universal—it’s wired into human psychology, not just American culture. Where cultures differ is in their relationship to authority and their perception of time. Russia, for instance, has a far deeper sense of historical continuity than the U.S., while Americans, immersed in commercialism from birth, may develop a kind of cultural immune response to sales tactics.
But for those from societies less saturated in hyper-commercial messaging, encountering these techniques can be like Native Americans confronting smallpox—there’s no built-in defense. How else do we explain the unsettling reality of so much of the world falling under the sway of American culture? At the very least, exposing these tactics brings them into conscious awareness. And with awareness comes a measure of resistance—an inoculation, however small, against manipulation.
First, this is a superb and invigorating read. Thank you.
Second, I agree with Dave Hansell. The once overly trustful Putin is unlikely to be so dazzled by Trump's "good cop" psychological warfare as you imply and, even if he were, are we to suppose men like Lavrov and Shoygu have no say? I applaud your courteous and reasoned reply to Dave, and you make a cracking good point about the difference between the clocks Russia and the pseudo democratic West work to. All the same: "Putin cuts a pathetic figure as he whines about being 'naïve,' 'surprised,' 'tricked,' and 'deceived' by the West—admissions that sound less like a master strategist and more like a dupe". Really? I find that a tad harsh. Sure, he was too trusting in the West's good faith and not only the Kremlin's hawks but Americans like Paul Craig Roberts called him out on it , the latter going so far as to say that Moscow appeasement was almost as big a threat to world peace as Western aggression. But Merkel's and Hollande's bragging about fooling him over Minsk marked as decisive a psychological turning point for Putin as Ukrainian events from 2021 onwards marked a geopolitical turning point for Russia
Third, I'm about to post your first few paragraphs, followed by link to the full piece here, on my own site at steelcityscribblings.uk - under the header, "Ukraine: Trump's good cop to Biden's bad."
It will have this intro:
"In my previous post I described Donald Trump as "not what you'd call a deep thinker". Well one who might beg to differ is Kevin Batcho, a fan neither of the Big Tangerine or - another quote from my previous post - of "the US duopoly masquerading as a democracy".
"At every turn counselling against underestimating Trump, Mr Batcho's title is Depth of a Salesman, a punning nod to Arthur Miller which gainsays my own verdict on the 47th President. You can be the judge of that - and methinks he at times gets a little carried away by the views from the ramparts of his own word castles. I can forgive that, and so will you. This a splendid read, breath-taking in its imagination and erudition, its vim and panache.
That’s incredibly generous—thank you for reposting this article. Examining Trump is like walking through a wilderness of mirrors, where every reflection distorts as much as it reveals. And yet, we have to attempt it, if only to understand how he bends the political landscape around him. I appreciate the thoughtful engagement and look forward to visiting your site.
I agree that my remarks on Putin may have been a bit harsh, but that’s because he presents himself as a stone-cold realist, whereas these comments suggest a more idealist pathos. This is easily resolved. Putin never truly believed Minsk II was a viable settlement; what he did grasp was that Russia was not yet prepared to face massive U.S. sanctions alone. So he waited, refusing to be rushed, bidding his time until the conditions were right. When he finally struck, he not only endured the sanctions—he thrived under them. I should have included a paragraph clarifying this. The fact is, Putin now stands on the verge of a remarkable geopolitical achievement.
Agreed. And as you said to Dave, you did balance the picture towards the end. I can't speak for Dave (who comments often on my site, and who alerted me to your post) but my cap is one of degree not of kind. I thought the positives of the Russian moves deserved more amplification is ll. And now you've done that. Thanks again.
Here is the new ending of that section. After all the attention thrown at Trump, Putin emerges at the end on the brink of victory:
Putin cuts a pathetic figure as he whines about being 'naïve,' 'surprised,' 'tricked,' and 'deceived' by the West—admissions that sound less like a master strategist and more like a dupe. No wonder some of Russia’s harder men may whisper the unthinkable: was he ever really one of us?
Why would a stone-cold realist like Putin ever present the pathos of an idealist? Can the hard man of the Kremlin, with centuries of geopolitical realism forged on the most gruesome battlefields of human history, really have been duped by lightweights such as Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande? If so, that is good news for Trump, ever the master trickster.
But this quandary is easily resolved. Putin never truly believed Minsk II was a viable settlement; what he did grasp was that Russia was not yet prepared to face massive U.S. sanctions alone. So he waited, refusing to be rushed, bidding his time until the conditions were right. When he finally struck, he not only endured the sanctions—he thrived under them. And now, with the battlefield stabilized and the West's unity fraying, the moment Putin has waited for may finally be at hand.
Meanwhile, Trump dangles a tantalizing offer—a chance to rewrite history, to redeem what some saw as Putin’s miscalculation, to prove that Russia was always destined to be a respected pillar of Europe. How tempting it must be to imagine that when the dust settles and the final deal is struck, Putin’s pro-Western orientation will be vindicated after all.
This is not merely a political maneuver; it’s an emotional one. Trump is playing on a deep-seated Russian longing—the historical oscillation between Slavic identity and European destiny. Like a lover who abandoned her, the West scorned Russia, yet here is Trump, whispering that it was all a misunderstanding, that everything can be made right again. And between them, broken and bleeding, lies Ukraine—the tragic offspring of their endless struggle, sacrificed so that old flames might rekindle.
Between East and West, where old empires whisper and new ones scheme, Ukraine bleeds into the earth—its sacrifice unheeded, its fate a footnote. The wind rattles through shattered towns, stirring the dust of promises made and unmade, while the cold soil swallows the future, one grave at a time.
But history does not weep; it calculates. Beneath the ruins, amid the broken pacts and shifting frontlines, a new order is being written. And at its center, one man stands on the edge of a defining moment. This is the price paid to place President Putin one negotiation away from claiming the greatest geopolitical prize since the fall of the Soviet Union: an American retreat from Europe.
you're overthinking it, presenting The Orange Buffoon as some Master genius at strategy. He isn't He only knows one simple trick: bluff and blister, the typical American, presenting himself as more powerful than he really is because he still thinks "AMerica in the 1970s or 1980s" Problem is times are very different indeed. In fact, the Reality is much much simpler: The Orange Buffoon needs to take care of the Ukrainian war and finish it because he needs to concentrate on his real targets: Iran and China. He is STILL controlled by Israel and by what they want of him: destroy Iran. Confronting CHina is next on his agenda too.
Sure it's not you that's under-thinking it? You wouldn't be the first to underestimate Trump.
As for Trump being controlled by Israel, my experience of that broad viewpoint tells me that even the best of its exponents - men like Jeffrey Sachs, John Mearsheimer and Scott Ritter - fail to differentiate America's interests from those of its ruling class. If the US seems to "fight Israel's wars" that's because its rulers see an alignment of their own interests with those of the Greater (Biblical) Israel far-Right.
I'm with Brian Berletic:
"People tell me Israel controls the US. When I ask how, they tell me AIPAC. But the arms industry spends far more. So do the Banks, Big Pharma, Big Agriculture. A cartel of industries fund think tanks producing papers which become policies and bills that the media sell to the American people. That’s how it works and the Israel lobbyists are a tiny fraction of that. if Israel truly controlled the US, all its forces would be in the Middle East. But they’re also in Ukraine and South Asia because the US is waging proxy war in all three."
putin has just vaulted into first place in europe. as orban, afd, rumania ... elect pro-russian leaders, the EU will fall into line with/behind russia. trump's multipolarity is russia, china, US. BRICS but US$ stays supreme. that's why trump's fort knox moment. and crypto? force zelensky out in elections as a referendum on the peace deal?
If this highly misguided speculation is typical of your writing its very easy to see why you have to result to spam posting on MOA in a desperate attempt to gain readers. You clearly have zero understanding of Russian culture in general and much less than zero when it comes to their president.
What is problematic here is the underlying assumption of the infallibility of the process and the mark, in this case Russia and, by extension, the majority of the non-Western world, are going to follow the script and its narrative.
And the reason why is down to cultural bias. The usual shtick of we are the biggest, baddest and bestest. Another variation of Borrell's '"Jungle/Garden" attitude.
Newsflash. The Russians and everyone else are well aware of the various psychological and other approaches of those across the negotiating table. They will most certainly have pre-gamed outcomes and scenarios like this years ago.
A fact clear to a blind man on a galloping horse just from them not taking the time pressure bait of an invitation back into the G-7 - having long decided that that body and its zero-sum, I win-you lose (epitomised by Trump) approach is doomed for the dustbin of history and that they will be at the centre and leading edge of a different approach.
Everything that Trump and the US does or say's will be taken with a large spoonful of salt on the grounds that the historical record clearly demonstrates that the West - Europe as much as the USA, which was founded on European colonisation - is and always will be non-agreement capable. It's in the cultural DNA. And they, as well as everyone else, understand and comprehend this reality.
The Russians are in no hurry. They are winning on the battlefield. They are winning diplomatically. They are winning with those who count. Riyadh, far from being some pressure game controlled by the self-styled mighty Trump and his sycophant hangers on, is merely talks about talks. Setting a framework of a much longer and larger process than the decaying quick win, quick closure culture of the Western elites and their scribes are capable of conceiving.
The confusion as to who it is who is actually in control here is understandable given the limited and limiting cultural context in which it exists and operates.
As the cope going on here.
The goal was to shed light on how the Americans are approaching negotiations, while the opening and closing sections were meant to cast doubt on who truly holds control. In the final section, I strongly suggested that it is, in fact, Russia—thanks to its long historical perspective, the longue durée, rather than short-term maneuvering.
Demystifying Trump’s seemingly chaotic actions is a worthwhile effort. In many of my posts, I explore the Russian way of thinking, because understanding must go both ways. Americans need to grasp the perspectives of the world, just as others must understand America. Empathy is vital in these situations. But by empathy, I do not mean sympathy—because in any struggle, knowing one’s enemy is essential.
I know it's superficial but great title!
Appreciate it! Funny you say "superficial"—I was playing with the idea that sales lives in that tension between surface and depth, appearance and persuasion. Glad the title resonated!
The salesman trick can only work in American culture.
I completely disagree. The three-step process of breaking the script, establishing authority, and creating urgency is universal—it’s wired into human psychology, not just American culture. Where cultures differ is in their relationship to authority and their perception of time. Russia, for instance, has a far deeper sense of historical continuity than the U.S., while Americans, immersed in commercialism from birth, may develop a kind of cultural immune response to sales tactics.
But for those from societies less saturated in hyper-commercial messaging, encountering these techniques can be like Native Americans confronting smallpox—there’s no built-in defense. How else do we explain the unsettling reality of so much of the world falling under the sway of American culture? At the very least, exposing these tactics brings them into conscious awareness. And with awareness comes a measure of resistance—an inoculation, however small, against manipulation.
First, this is a superb and invigorating read. Thank you.
Second, I agree with Dave Hansell. The once overly trustful Putin is unlikely to be so dazzled by Trump's "good cop" psychological warfare as you imply and, even if he were, are we to suppose men like Lavrov and Shoygu have no say? I applaud your courteous and reasoned reply to Dave, and you make a cracking good point about the difference between the clocks Russia and the pseudo democratic West work to. All the same: "Putin cuts a pathetic figure as he whines about being 'naïve,' 'surprised,' 'tricked,' and 'deceived' by the West—admissions that sound less like a master strategist and more like a dupe". Really? I find that a tad harsh. Sure, he was too trusting in the West's good faith and not only the Kremlin's hawks but Americans like Paul Craig Roberts called him out on it , the latter going so far as to say that Moscow appeasement was almost as big a threat to world peace as Western aggression. But Merkel's and Hollande's bragging about fooling him over Minsk marked as decisive a psychological turning point for Putin as Ukrainian events from 2021 onwards marked a geopolitical turning point for Russia
Third, I'm about to post your first few paragraphs, followed by link to the full piece here, on my own site at steelcityscribblings.uk - under the header, "Ukraine: Trump's good cop to Biden's bad."
It will have this intro:
"In my previous post I described Donald Trump as "not what you'd call a deep thinker". Well one who might beg to differ is Kevin Batcho, a fan neither of the Big Tangerine or - another quote from my previous post - of "the US duopoly masquerading as a democracy".
"At every turn counselling against underestimating Trump, Mr Batcho's title is Depth of a Salesman, a punning nod to Arthur Miller which gainsays my own verdict on the 47th President. You can be the judge of that - and methinks he at times gets a little carried away by the views from the ramparts of his own word castles. I can forgive that, and so will you. This a splendid read, breath-taking in its imagination and erudition, its vim and panache.
"Enjoy."
That’s incredibly generous—thank you for reposting this article. Examining Trump is like walking through a wilderness of mirrors, where every reflection distorts as much as it reveals. And yet, we have to attempt it, if only to understand how he bends the political landscape around him. I appreciate the thoughtful engagement and look forward to visiting your site.
I agree that my remarks on Putin may have been a bit harsh, but that’s because he presents himself as a stone-cold realist, whereas these comments suggest a more idealist pathos. This is easily resolved. Putin never truly believed Minsk II was a viable settlement; what he did grasp was that Russia was not yet prepared to face massive U.S. sanctions alone. So he waited, refusing to be rushed, bidding his time until the conditions were right. When he finally struck, he not only endured the sanctions—he thrived under them. I should have included a paragraph clarifying this. The fact is, Putin now stands on the verge of a remarkable geopolitical achievement.
Agreed. And as you said to Dave, you did balance the picture towards the end. I can't speak for Dave (who comments often on my site, and who alerted me to your post) but my cap is one of degree not of kind. I thought the positives of the Russian moves deserved more amplification is ll. And now you've done that. Thanks again.
Here is the new ending of that section. After all the attention thrown at Trump, Putin emerges at the end on the brink of victory:
Putin cuts a pathetic figure as he whines about being 'naïve,' 'surprised,' 'tricked,' and 'deceived' by the West—admissions that sound less like a master strategist and more like a dupe. No wonder some of Russia’s harder men may whisper the unthinkable: was he ever really one of us?
Why would a stone-cold realist like Putin ever present the pathos of an idealist? Can the hard man of the Kremlin, with centuries of geopolitical realism forged on the most gruesome battlefields of human history, really have been duped by lightweights such as Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande? If so, that is good news for Trump, ever the master trickster.
But this quandary is easily resolved. Putin never truly believed Minsk II was a viable settlement; what he did grasp was that Russia was not yet prepared to face massive U.S. sanctions alone. So he waited, refusing to be rushed, bidding his time until the conditions were right. When he finally struck, he not only endured the sanctions—he thrived under them. And now, with the battlefield stabilized and the West's unity fraying, the moment Putin has waited for may finally be at hand.
Meanwhile, Trump dangles a tantalizing offer—a chance to rewrite history, to redeem what some saw as Putin’s miscalculation, to prove that Russia was always destined to be a respected pillar of Europe. How tempting it must be to imagine that when the dust settles and the final deal is struck, Putin’s pro-Western orientation will be vindicated after all.
This is not merely a political maneuver; it’s an emotional one. Trump is playing on a deep-seated Russian longing—the historical oscillation between Slavic identity and European destiny. Like a lover who abandoned her, the West scorned Russia, yet here is Trump, whispering that it was all a misunderstanding, that everything can be made right again. And between them, broken and bleeding, lies Ukraine—the tragic offspring of their endless struggle, sacrificed so that old flames might rekindle.
Between East and West, where old empires whisper and new ones scheme, Ukraine bleeds into the earth—its sacrifice unheeded, its fate a footnote. The wind rattles through shattered towns, stirring the dust of promises made and unmade, while the cold soil swallows the future, one grave at a time.
But history does not weep; it calculates. Beneath the ruins, amid the broken pacts and shifting frontlines, a new order is being written. And at its center, one man stands on the edge of a defining moment. This is the price paid to place President Putin one negotiation away from claiming the greatest geopolitical prize since the fall of the Soviet Union: an American retreat from Europe.
I've been busy chauffeuring my son around but now I am going to edit that portion of the piece to reflect my comment above.
you're overthinking it, presenting The Orange Buffoon as some Master genius at strategy. He isn't He only knows one simple trick: bluff and blister, the typical American, presenting himself as more powerful than he really is because he still thinks "AMerica in the 1970s or 1980s" Problem is times are very different indeed. In fact, the Reality is much much simpler: The Orange Buffoon needs to take care of the Ukrainian war and finish it because he needs to concentrate on his real targets: Iran and China. He is STILL controlled by Israel and by what they want of him: destroy Iran. Confronting CHina is next on his agenda too.
Sure it's not you that's under-thinking it? You wouldn't be the first to underestimate Trump.
As for Trump being controlled by Israel, my experience of that broad viewpoint tells me that even the best of its exponents - men like Jeffrey Sachs, John Mearsheimer and Scott Ritter - fail to differentiate America's interests from those of its ruling class. If the US seems to "fight Israel's wars" that's because its rulers see an alignment of their own interests with those of the Greater (Biblical) Israel far-Right.
I'm with Brian Berletic:
"People tell me Israel controls the US. When I ask how, they tell me AIPAC. But the arms industry spends far more. So do the Banks, Big Pharma, Big Agriculture. A cartel of industries fund think tanks producing papers which become policies and bills that the media sell to the American people. That’s how it works and the Israel lobbyists are a tiny fraction of that. if Israel truly controlled the US, all its forces would be in the Middle East. But they’re also in Ukraine and South Asia because the US is waging proxy war in all three."
Exactly, but I believe the nonWestern world is aware now.
putin has just vaulted into first place in europe. as orban, afd, rumania ... elect pro-russian leaders, the EU will fall into line with/behind russia. trump's multipolarity is russia, china, US. BRICS but US$ stays supreme. that's why trump's fort knox moment. and crypto? force zelensky out in elections as a referendum on the peace deal?
If this highly misguided speculation is typical of your writing its very easy to see why you have to result to spam posting on MOA in a desperate attempt to gain readers. You clearly have zero understanding of Russian culture in general and much less than zero when it comes to their president.