Chasing Squirrels in Kursk: Ukraine's Strategic ADHD

History as a grinding conflict of two brain typologies: primal Hunters with ADHD tendencies being slowly being replaced by autistic-leaning Farmers. Ukraine impulsively turns Hunter by invading Russia

As Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region enters its second week, the dynamic style of fighting contrasts sharply with the previous two years of static trench warfare. The sight of columns of Ukrainian armoured vehicles manoeuvring swiftly forward resembles the early days of the war when Russia conducted similar lightning raids and appeared to capture sweeping swathes of territory. Such fast-moving raids belong to the Hunter typology, where possession of land is tenuous at best.

When in 2022 Russia ceded vast tracts of occupied territory in Ukraine, this only confirmed that control of land is much more fluid within the ADHD-like paradigm of the Hunter. It took most of 2022 for the initially dynamic manoeuvres of the war’s Hunters to be tamed into stable territories divided by a clear front line, along which a gruelling war of attrition then emerged.

During attrition war, the Farmer mentality holds sway. The Farmer mindset, which dominates much of the world today, has an almost neurotic compulsion to mark maps with colors, and in doing so declare ownership of territory. For those who lean more toward the Farmer-autistic side of the cognitive spectrum, ambiguity in land ownership is intolerable.

Today in Kursk, despite the abundance of colored maps, and increasing evidence that the initial impetus of the Ukrainian attack is waning, ambiguity still reigns. Such situations are the domain of Hunter-soldiers, particularly special forces. NATO excels at this type of small-scale, highly-skilled warfare. Nevertheless, aside from sporadic reports of French and Polish mercenaries among the invading Ukrainian troops, NATO's presence in Kursk is mostly marked by the growing pile of its destroyed weaponry. Russia’s Akhmat special forces are increasingly active in the region and, perhaps in an overly optimistic bid to calm Russian doomsayers, claim to be making progress:

<…> the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operation in the Kursk region has turned into a safari for Russian troops. The enemy darts through fields, hides in residential areas, but relentlessly gets hit on the head with our sledgehammer. Everything is burned. Welcome to hell; we are glad to have you. (@Iamsniper Telegram)

Both sides are undoubtedly taking their hits although Ukraine’s equipment losses in particular are piling up. There is little protective cover in Kursk and Ukrainian equipment is exposed, resulting in heavy losses in both armoured vehicles and manpower. The very nature of the Kursk invasion forces the Ukrainians to dangerously overextend themselves, leaving them vulnerable to Russian attacks from the air. Once the offensive Hunters stop advancing, Ukraine must deploy their defensive Farmers to defend via trench warfare against inevitable Russian counterattacks. Russia with its vast hinterland and rock solid political legitimacy is able to fall back in its traditional way of war: cede land until the enemy’s culmination point is reached and then attack the weakened and overextended forces.

Currently there is still much confusion about the situation in Kursk, which means Russia has not yet calmed the situation into positional warfare along a clear front. A bewildering series of videos and reports appear on Telegram, many are several days old and simply show a small Ukrainian unit passing through the center of a village. This does not mean the soldiers stayed to occupy and hold the ground. The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rezident, which often takes a critical view of the Zelensky regime, claims that once the front lines are stabilized, Ukraine will be forced to defend a front along a length of 180 kilometres in Kursk. Already dangerously short on reserves, Ukraine will have to pull even more troops from their collapsing front lines in the Donbass in order to hold and occupy this newly conquered Russian territory.

After Hamas seemed to effortlessly invade Israel on October 7th of last year, many commentators claimed that an omniscient Israel must have known the attack was coming and let it happen for strategic/political purposes. In Kursk there is some circumstantial evidence of a similar gambit. Russia had recently cleared the border regions of landmines while maintaining troops at a discreet distance to avoid Ukrainian artillery booming away along the border. This left a tempting vacuum in these regions just waiting to be filled by a dopamine-deprived Ukrainian leader.

In 1943, during the first Battle of Kursk, the Soviets lured the superior German forces into an invasion, intending to wear them down before launching a counteroffensive. The ferocious German army crashed into well-prepared Soviet defenses, but after a few weeks, they reached a stalemate. At this crucial moment, the Soviets launched a massive counterattack, pushing the shocked Germans back hundreds of kilometres. Hitler, who had blamed his previous losses on harsh winter conditions, was stunned that his seemingly superior forces had been defeated by the lowly Soviets in the height of summer.

Whether in 2024, Russia created a military void for Ukraine to fill was a stratagem or blunder will take decades for military historians to decide. If Russia has indeed baited Zelensky into this impulsive action, Putin and his advisors can never admit that they sacrificed a small corner of Russia for the greater strategic good.

The Kursk invasion is turning out to be a short-term media dopamine high for Ukraine. It has worked wonderfully to distract attention away from the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the Donbass. Interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers demonstrate that many were pulled out of the Donbass to fight in Kursk. So far instead of slowing down her attacks and transferring troops away from the Donbass, Russia is intensifying her offensive there. The best case scenario for Ukraine is to execute a fighting withdrawal from Kursk and transfer troops back to critical weak points. Otherwise, an editor from Der Spiegel describes what will happen:

In the worst-case scenario, Ukraine will remain in Kursk and defend these territories, but against Russian superiority and will spend a lot of resources. These resources will not be enough in the East, in Donbass, exhausted soldiers would no longer be able to hold the front and this would lead to collapse. Russia would seize the whole of Donbass. In response, domestic political pressure would increase in the US, Germany and the West, and Ukraine would be perceived as an unreliable partner.

While Ukraine enjoys a temporary sugar high from its current offensive, an inevitable collapse in Kursk seems likely. In the meantime, as the “victims” of an invasion, Russia will likely garner even more international sympathy, positioning herself to launch more devastating attacks on Kyiv and drive a much harder bargain when armistice talks eventually begin.

Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk bears all the hallmarks of a high-risk, low-benefit impulsive action, reminiscent of a momentary decision made by a child with ADHD. In contrast, Russia’s somewhat plodding response mirrors that of a cognitively inflexible Farmer, who values order and regularity and struggles to adapt to sudden challenges in the strategic situation.

Autistic Farmers vs. ADHD Hunters

In 1989, Thom Hartmann's 13-year-old son was diagnosed with ADHD. As a former psychoanalyst who ran a center for troubled teens, Hartmann felt a sense of déjà vu as he listened to the psychologist explain the characteristics of ADHD—distractibility, impulsiveness, jumping from project to project, the ability to hyper-focus, and a love of the thrill that comes with risk-taking. Hartmann recognized that his own mind functioned similarly to his son’s. However, when the psychologist described ADHD as a brain disease only treatable with medication, Hartmann saw tears well up in his son’s eyes and realized he needed to offer his son (and himself) a much more positive narrative.

With stereotypical ADHD intensity, Hartmann dove into a research binge, obsessively combing through scientific papers and interviewing numerous psychologist colleagues. During his studies, he was struck by how the very ADHD characteristics that modern society devalues would have been invaluable assets for primitive humans living in a hunter-gatherer society. In contrast, the mindsets considered "normal" today would have been more advantageous in agricultural societies, which have been replacing hunter-gatherers for the past ten thousand years. Hartmann developed these insights into his best-selling book ADHD: A Hunter in a Farmer's World.

As the human race moved from its earliest ancestors, two basic types of cultures evolved. In the areas that were lush with plant and animal life and had a low human population density, hunters and gatherers predominated. In other parts of the world (particularly Asia), farming or agricultural societies evolved.

Over time, Farmers came to dominate society as they could more densely populate land. With the advent of industrialism, agriculture evolved into manufacturing, further solidifying the dominance of the archetypical Farmer cognitive structure across most of the world.

Hartmann theorized that people diagnosed with ADHD do not have anything "wrong" with their brains. Instead, they are remnants of a time when a Hunter mindset was essential for survival and prosperity in the prehistoric world. People with ADHD can be:

described as excessively distractible, impatient, impulsive, and often seeking immediate gratification. They often disregard the long-term consequences of their actions, so focused are they on the moment and its rewards. They're usually disorganized and messy, because they bounce from project to project, too impatient to clean up the debris from their last activity (p. xiii)

According to Hartman, strong Hunter characteristics include:

• They can totally throw themselves into the hunt; time is elastic

• They’re flexible, capable of changing strategy on a moment’s notice.

• They can throw an incredible burst of energy into the hunt.

• They love the hunt, but are easily bored by mundane tasks

• They’ll face danger that “normal” individuals would avoid.

It is wrong to frame these characteristics as a ‘disease.” Hartmann gives the following example of how Hunters can prosper at the highest levels of the business world:

They love the hunt, but are easily bored by mundane tasks such as having to clean the fish, dress the meat, or fill out the paperwork.

Donald Haughey, a former senior executive with Holiday Inns, tells the story of how Kemmons Wilson, the legendary founder of Holiday Inns, had a group of executives he called Bear Skinners. Wilson would go out into the world and shoot the bear (negotiate a new hotel site, bring in new financing, open a new division, etc.), and his Bear Skinners would take care of the details of "skinning and cleaning" the deal.

Business leaders are today often broken down into two types: Rainmakers who go out and get the projects and Grinders, who have the patience and foresight to successfully manage the resulting projects. Rainmakers are rare, and are highly valued in the entrepreneurial world, but must be constantly challenged and stimulated.

On the opposite end of the spectrum from Hunters are the Farmers. While Hartmann doesn’t explicitly link Farmers to autism, the current metaphorical use of autism to describe people with the ability to deeply concentrate on a subject makes this connection apt. It's important, however, to understand “autistic” here in its colloquial sense, referring to a rigid cognitive style rather than the more common association with severe cognitive impairment. Many psychologists acknowledge an ADHD-autism spectrum, which closely aligns with the Hunter-Farmer polarity. Hartmann clarifies:

Individuals who are almost pure Hunters are classified as classic ADHD. Individuals who are almost pure Farmers are classified as slow, careful, methodical, and, sometimes, boring. Since Farmer characteristics are less likely to be risky and dangerous (for reasons explained), these extremely non-ADHD people are not often classified by psychologists. They don’t get into trouble and tend not to stand out in our society.

Hartmann lists the following characteristics of Farmers

• Farmers sustain a slow-and-steady effort

• Farmers see the long-range picture, and stick to it.

• Farmers are not easily bored

• Farmers attend to the details.

• Farmers are cautious.

Russian President Putin embodies the archetypal Farmer. Wars of attrition demand leaders with a ploughman's dogged persistence. Artillery blankets the fields with the relentless, methodical approach one might see in a Farmer tending his land. Forward assaults are orchestrated with the precision of a harvest plan, only to be followed by the grim aftermath—sowing the sterile seeds of lost youth in the vast expanse of white-stoned cemeteries that mimic endless wheat fields.

Yet, even within these grinding wars of attrition, there are flashes of the Hunter's lightning strikes—daring manoeuvres like the Russians' deep penetration into Avdiivka through a sewer pipe. Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk has momentarily side-lined the Farmers, reintroducing dynamic movement and bursts of dopamine into the conflict. This shift comes just in time for Ukraine to seize the media spotlight, as Russian advances toward the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk gain momentum. Russia's relentless progress in the Donbass itself threatens to evolve into manoeuvre warfare, potentially leading to a rapid push toward the Dnieper River.

As Ukraine hunts in Kursk, Russian farmers are steadily increasing their spread towards the critical communications junction in Pokrovsk.

It’s been 30 years since Hartmann proposed that ADHD is a neurological remnant of humankind’s hunter-gatherer past. His hypothesis has held up well as our understanding of ADHD genetics advances. Genetic markers associated with ADHD were abundant in the genomes of pre-agricultural hunter-gatherers. However, as more of the human population transitioned to agriculture, these markers steadily decreased and civilization spread. Strong selection pressures favoured traits associated with autism-leaning "Farmer" qualities over the default ADHD neurological tendency. Hunters and Farmers represent two extremes on a cognitive spectrum, with most people having a mix of both modes. In today’s society, those at either extreme are often stigmatized, despite their unique mental makeup providing significant advantages in certain fields.

Accepting the idea that there’s probably a bell curve to these behaviors, though, we can posit a norm that incorporates both Hunter and Farmer behaviors, with swings in both directions on either side of the center line.

Contemporary video games offer intense, albeit virtual, Hunter experiences that can be highly addictive for individuals who lean more toward the ADHD side of the spectrum. These games tap into the thrill-seeking, fast-paced nature of the Hunter mindset, providing the kind of stimulation and quick rewards that resonate deeply with those who have ADHD.

From Trump to Zelensky: Statesmen with ADHD

During Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign in 2016, some psychologists speculated that his erratic behaviour on the campaign trail and later in the Oval Office might be attributed to Adult ADHD. His difficulty with staying on message was frequently cited. Tony Schwartz, who spent nearly 18 months closely working with Trump as the ghost-writer for The Art of the Deal, famously claiming, "[Trump] has the attention span of a 9-year-old with ADHD!"

A more positive perspective might suggest that as the innovative "Hunter" Trump shattered the Farmer-inspired rules of US politics, ultimately disrupting Hillary Clinton’s ability to adapt. Clinton, embodying a more autistic-style Farmer, froze into inflexibility when faced with the unpredictable strategies of a political Hunter.

However, living as a Hunter in a Farmer’s world isn't always straightforward. Hartmann estimates that only about 10% of the population falls on the extreme end of the Hunter spectrum, meaning that constant exposure to ADHD-like behaviour can become tiresome for the much larger, Farmer-brained majority. Perhaps this explains Trump’s loss in 2020, Americans just got sick of his Hunter antics?

Clinical Psychologist George Sachs explains the impact ADHD can have on an adult, navigating a delicate balance. He aims to avoid stigmatizing his ADHD patients by promoting Farmer-supremacist narratives, while also satisfying his profound urge to criticize Trump politically.

Yet another symptom adults with ADHD demonstrate is a constant attraction -- if not addiction -- to excitement. They crave adrenaline highs. This need for excitement has a positive and negative side. Positive excitement can come from such things as visiting a new city or engaging in relatively benign adrenaline-rush activities. It's easy to imagine that building a skyscraper -- and certainly dozens of them -- can bring with it a positive adrenaline rush that can also have a positive effect on the world by creating jobs and improving cities. On the other hand, one could easily argue that deciding "how great it would be" to become president -- despite lacking any experience in the realm of politics or statecraft -- can end up being an example of "negative excitement" associated with ADHD.

Another issue for adults with ADHD is that they tend to fall into the trap of overpromising. People with ADHD are often so convinced that the next new thing will "save the day" that they are willing to promise anything and everything just to continue to follow their new obsession. Often their enthusiasm and charm win people over, especially their spouses, co-workers and bosses. Unfortunately, this invariably leads to crushing disappointment for the very people they are intending to please.

This description could also apply to Ukraine's contested President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian information warfare portrays him as a publicity-obsessed cocaine addict, feeding into the narrative of a reckless, pleasure-seeking, Hunter mindset. Indeed, Zelensky’s background in cinema—a field often associated with Hunter-like creativity and impulsivity—aligns well with this portrayal.

Nevertheless, Zelensky does face the immense challenge of directing a war against the Russian war machine while relying heavily on the fickle West for financial and military support. This dependency forces him to remain acutely aware of the headlines. Compounding his difficulties, as the West’s military resources are slowly depleted by Russia, and with Russia itself flush with its own weapons and potential imports from Iran, North Korea, and China, Ukraine’s chances of winning a Farmer-style war of attrition seem nil.

Zelensky’s Kursk gambit, while highly risky, may have been his only option. To avoid slowly bleeding out in the Donbass, what choice did Zelensky have other than to gamble on such a long shot? Ukraine and the West are not going to win a war of attrition against a relentless, methodical leader like Putin. The West, plagued by a kind of cultural ADHD, struggles to maintain focus on any policy or issue for long. In contrast, civilizational-states like Russia, China, India, and Iran operate on a slower, more deliberate pace. These nations can maintain collective focus on long-term policies, perfecting their strategies in a patient quest for power.

Exploiting the stark contrast between Zelensky’s ADHD-like impulsiveness and Putin's autistic-style methodical approach was, in fact, Ukraine's only hope. By striking with lightning speed, Zelensky aimed to disrupt a static Russia, much like how Trump upended Clinton in 2016. The strategy hinged on the belief that a rapid, unpredictable offensive could destabilize Russia's more rigid, Farmer-like approach to warfare. In the best-case scenario, Ukraine would have captured the Kursk nuclear power plant. However, as is so often the case with Hail Mary passes, the gambit ultimately failed.

The Telegram channel Rezident, which is rumoured to be close to former Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny, has been very critical of the Kursk operation from the start and is content to see Western media outlets echoing their concerns:

Western media completely repeat our publications that the Kursk adventure could cost Ukraine very dearly, and Zelensky has been demanding a counteroffensive from Syrsky for several months. The summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian territory is Zelensky’s riskiest decision, which has been planned for months, because Moscow will do everything to return the territories, The Times writes, citing Ukrainian sources. The publication says that Zelensky has been secretly pressuring the military leadership for months to launch an offensive. It is reported that Ukraine would have attacked Russia even if it had not received permission from the West. In this way, Kyiv wants to change the narrative that "Ukraine is losing the war." It is noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allocated for this operation amount to between 6,000 and 10,000 military personnel. "The military leadership is prepared to risk valuable soldiers and equipment to achieve something in this direction," The Times writes. Our source in the Office of the President said that the military was against a new counteroffensive.

The Hunter Becomes the Prey?

As Zelensky’s Kursk adventure grinds inexorably toward a new war of attrition, the United States appears to be manoeuvring to push the desperate leader out of office. Western media outlets are seemingly coordinating their efforts in a surreal gaslighting campaign, shifting American blame for the terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline toward Ukraine, specifically targeting Zelensky and Zaluzhny.

US throwing Zelensky under the Nord Stream bus.

The Western headlines all-so-subtly hint at a chaotic, ADHD-style geopolitical binge, led by unhinged Ukrainians resulted in the tragic destruction of Nord Stream and the subsequent environmental damage that ensued. The timing of this smear-campaign against Ukraine is highly suggestive, starting a little more than a week after the Kursk campaign was launched.

Observers grounded in reality understand that a few drunk Ukrainians in a sailboat lack the technical expertise to execute such a complex operation at 75 meters depth, causing nearly simultaneous explosions 80 kilometres apart. This narrative is pure fantasy, yet it serves a significant purpose: the U.S. appears to be laying the groundwork for potential terrorism charges against Zelensky, aiming to pressure him out of office. Following a successful defenestration campaign to remove President Biden from the 2024 race, several reports suggest that the U.S. favours a more disciplined and compliant Arsen Avakov, who served as Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs from 2014 until 2021, as a potential replacement for the wild-child Zelensky.

As the U.S. election season heats up and regional conflict looms in the Middle East, fractures are emerging within the Democratic Party over their perceived responsibility for the massacre in Gaza. With President Biden’s deep cognitive decline becoming increasingly apparent, the shadowy faction that has been running the country is losing its mask of deniability. Biden’s role as an empty vessel worked well as long as his mental state remained hidden. The last thing such a cabal needs is unpredictable political figures like Trump or Zelensky going off-script in search of cheap thrills, driven by their unique cognitive wiring. Puppet masters behind the curtain prefer bland, Farmer-like figures who reflexively follow instructions and understand the broader strategy, serving as reliable political ciphers in these troubled times. It remains to be seen if Vice President Harris fits this role.