Geopolitical thunder on the tundra: As the noose tightens on the battlefield, a proxy may be sacrificed—Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance between Trump’s brinkmanship and Putin’s relentless advance.
As always, Kevin enriches our understanding of geopolitical knots.
I am most attracted to a geopolitical understanding that America and Russia reach certain understandings:
1. Iran to rejoin the West due to its geopolitical and economic (easily a $1 billion-plus economy) heft;
2. Ukraine to become a Finlandanized nation (for the younger folks, Finlandization meant a western-oriented economy but with no political-defense ties to the West.
Russia has been wanting to stop US expansion and threats on its border via negotiations/ diplomacy for over a decade. US refused so russia used force. US now wanting negotiations and diplomacy is a clear sign that russia has won. It's forced the US to the table.
I find it hard to believe that the US will accept russian demands, so imo the conflict will be settled on the battlefield. Ukraine will be completely defeated and a pro russian government installed in Kiev.
US will continue agitation via both its standard covert methods and via its European proxies and others in the Caucasus etc.
Yes, speaking of the Caucasus, the US moves in Azerbaijan must be freaking out people in Moscow and Tehran. There is still some time but that situation will need to be dealt with, Neither Russia nor Iran can allow Israeli/US bases in such a sensitive area.
No, Witkoff flew all the way to Moscow and was received in the Kremlin. The Russians in their first read out said the meeting was requested by the Americans. Had the Russians requested a meeting, either Lavrov would have travelled, or it would be by telephone.
I can’t believe Putin would agree to a ceasefire without Ukraine accepting all of Russia’s conditions and that is not possible. The. Azov types would kill Z. Nothing will happen, except maybe Trumpenstein will say, I tried and then throw the coke clown to euro poodles to chew on for a while longer.
Zelensky and the European leaders demand to be at the negotiating table. But negotiation means making compromises, which they have in no way signaled. In addition they want Russia to pay war reparations.
But it is well documented that it was Hillary Clinton/CIA, via their Nazi tool in Kiev - which is also documented by video clips from Maidan, who was behind the violent coup d´état, and thus started the war - to which Russia only responded eight years later.
So isn´t it the party that starts the war that has to pay war reparations?
And how come that Zelensky, the EU and the media never address this violent regime change?
Zelensky and the EU leaders have nothing to do at the negotiating table.
You made the comment that "Putin can afford the luxury of a drawn out game." I agree from an economic perspective.
BUT
Putin is getting older. Just as his economic calculus is gaining strength, his physical clock is running lower. I wonder sometimes how that affects his mental calculus.
From all accounts, Putin works like a man possessed—double-digit meetings a day, a pace no mortal can sustain forever. Age creeps in, yet the Kremlin’s theatre runs on. Conspiracy lore whispers of more than body doubles: a whole stable of Putins, actors in matching suits, perfecting the walk, the squint, the icy pause before a punchline.
It sparks a mad little thought. In Rome, emperors were all called Caesar, the name outliving the men. What if Russia is ruled by a shadow committee, its eternal figurehead a revolving cast of balding men called “Putin”? The genius of it is in the contingency: should Washington ever throw “Putin” into jail—say, during a dramatic summit in Alaska—the Kremlin could simply wheel out the next spare Putin, wave him before the cameras, and declare that America has jailed the body double. The show would go on.
But if there is, in fact, only one Putin, then beneath the theatre lies a far more serious reality: given Putin's workload, Russia may be hurtling toward a succession crisis sooner rather than later. Philip II of Macedon was loathed in Athens almost as much as Putin is in the West—but when he fell, an Alexander was waiting to seize the moment. Whether Moscow will find its own Alexander is anyone’s guess. We will just have to wait and see.
Russia has been desperate for a Minsk-3 since the outset of the war, even though anyone with as much sense as God gave a kitten could tell that Minsk and Minsk-2 were shams that neither Ukraine nor its western sponsors ever intended to uphold.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. Any agreement with him is worthless. Even if he reaches an agreement, his neocon handlers will flatter him back into line.
Moreover, Trump is trying anything to distract from The Epstein Files and his presumed role on them.
Putin will be taken to a back alley and shot in the head if he agrees to a Minsk-III. I find it difficult to take exception to your comments about Trump however!
As always, Kevin enriches our understanding of geopolitical knots.
I am most attracted to a geopolitical understanding that America and Russia reach certain understandings:
1. Iran to rejoin the West due to its geopolitical and economic (easily a $1 billion-plus economy) heft;
2. Ukraine to become a Finlandanized nation (for the younger folks, Finlandization meant a western-oriented economy but with no political-defense ties to the West.
Thanks Nicholas!!
Russia has been wanting to stop US expansion and threats on its border via negotiations/ diplomacy for over a decade. US refused so russia used force. US now wanting negotiations and diplomacy is a clear sign that russia has won. It's forced the US to the table.
I find it hard to believe that the US will accept russian demands, so imo the conflict will be settled on the battlefield. Ukraine will be completely defeated and a pro russian government installed in Kiev.
US will continue agitation via both its standard covert methods and via its European proxies and others in the Caucasus etc.
Yes, speaking of the Caucasus, the US moves in Azerbaijan must be freaking out people in Moscow and Tehran. There is still some time but that situation will need to be dealt with, Neither Russia nor Iran can allow Israeli/US bases in such a sensitive area.
As far as I can tell, it is Russia and not the West that is seeking negotiation here.
No, Witkoff flew all the way to Moscow and was received in the Kremlin. The Russians in their first read out said the meeting was requested by the Americans. Had the Russians requested a meeting, either Lavrov would have travelled, or it would be by telephone.
I can’t believe Putin would agree to a ceasefire without Ukraine accepting all of Russia’s conditions and that is not possible. The. Azov types would kill Z. Nothing will happen, except maybe Trumpenstein will say, I tried and then throw the coke clown to euro poodles to chew on for a while longer.
Russia will push on.
Agree!!
Zelensky and the European leaders demand to be at the negotiating table. But negotiation means making compromises, which they have in no way signaled. In addition they want Russia to pay war reparations.
But it is well documented that it was Hillary Clinton/CIA, via their Nazi tool in Kiev - which is also documented by video clips from Maidan, who was behind the violent coup d´état, and thus started the war - to which Russia only responded eight years later.
So isn´t it the party that starts the war that has to pay war reparations?
And how come that Zelensky, the EU and the media never address this violent regime change?
Zelensky and the EU leaders have nothing to do at the negotiating table.
Excellent comments, on who pays war reparations it is typically the party that loses the war!
Excellent analysis. Thank you!
Thank you!!
Great article.
You made the comment that "Putin can afford the luxury of a drawn out game." I agree from an economic perspective.
BUT
Putin is getting older. Just as his economic calculus is gaining strength, his physical clock is running lower. I wonder sometimes how that affects his mental calculus.
From all accounts, Putin works like a man possessed—double-digit meetings a day, a pace no mortal can sustain forever. Age creeps in, yet the Kremlin’s theatre runs on. Conspiracy lore whispers of more than body doubles: a whole stable of Putins, actors in matching suits, perfecting the walk, the squint, the icy pause before a punchline.
It sparks a mad little thought. In Rome, emperors were all called Caesar, the name outliving the men. What if Russia is ruled by a shadow committee, its eternal figurehead a revolving cast of balding men called “Putin”? The genius of it is in the contingency: should Washington ever throw “Putin” into jail—say, during a dramatic summit in Alaska—the Kremlin could simply wheel out the next spare Putin, wave him before the cameras, and declare that America has jailed the body double. The show would go on.
But if there is, in fact, only one Putin, then beneath the theatre lies a far more serious reality: given Putin's workload, Russia may be hurtling toward a succession crisis sooner rather than later. Philip II of Macedon was loathed in Athens almost as much as Putin is in the West—but when he fell, an Alexander was waiting to seize the moment. Whether Moscow will find its own Alexander is anyone’s guess. We will just have to wait and see.
Russia has been desperate for a Minsk-3 since the outset of the war, even though anyone with as much sense as God gave a kitten could tell that Minsk and Minsk-2 were shams that neither Ukraine nor its western sponsors ever intended to uphold.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated. Any agreement with him is worthless. Even if he reaches an agreement, his neocon handlers will flatter him back into line.
Moreover, Trump is trying anything to distract from The Epstein Files and his presumed role on them.
Putin will be taken to a back alley and shot in the head if he agrees to a Minsk-III. I find it difficult to take exception to your comments about Trump however!
I dunno, he already was ready to sign a Minsk-3 at Istanbul.