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Frank Revelo's avatar

USA cannot abandon Europe because that allows Russia to absorb it. USA must retreat but retreat to North America is too much, too fast. USA optimal strategy will be to keep Europe divided and hostile towards Russia. My prediction is that USA will: a) allow Russia to sell pipeline oil/gas to the Balkan states (pkus Slovakia and Hungary) so these are kept favorable to Russia; b) prohibit Russia from selling pipeline oil/gas to Poland and Germany, so these are prevented from getting too dependent on Russia; c) continued slow boil wars in the front line states (Ukraine, Baltics, Finland) so there is tension between states receiving Russian pipeline oil/gas and everyone else in EU.

USA also cannot retreat from mideast or Africa because that is where the resources are. But USA can and will switch from Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean focus to making Mediterranean a NATO only sea, with Israel guarding the west end. North African states which refuse to be NATO vassals will be destroyed like Libya. Algeria will be given ample warning before this happens, of course.

Colombia and Venezuela are necessarily part of the North American fortress, because they allow access to the Caribbean Sea, which is otherwise guarded by the island chain. Locking the Gulf of Mexico/'Merica and Caribbean from possible submarine predators is important, plus Venezuela has valuable resources. Extending south beyond Colombia and Venezuela is indeed a step too far. Stares further south will be allowed neutrality and right to trade with both sides, same as in WWI and WWII.

Trump's recent blustering with Canada, Mexico, Panama, Colombia, Denmark/Greenland, followed by trivial concessions, should not be seen as incompetent negotiating skills, just as a warning shot fired overhead is not incompetent shooting skills. Sec State Rubio's multipolarity statement plus Trump's blustering is telling the world that USA is going back to sphere of influence thinking and is ready to control its sphere of influence with old-skool gunboat diplomacy.

Big retreat will be from the west Pacific. USA will likely put huge trade barriers in place to force factories to be relocated to the North American fortress, versus relying on vulnerable sea transport. Biden administration was already pushing to get TSMC to put a fab in the USA. I expect lots more such pressure in the future on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China. Eventual rule will be: invest in North American factories if you want to sell to North America, though initially push will be for USA factories, to satisfy USA voters. North America is more military issue than working age voter issue.

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Dain Fitzgerald's avatar

"The country slowly but surely abandoned production for financialization, trading real industry for speculation, tangible goods for abstractions."

US manufacturing is higher than it's ever been, as far as output. It's employment, in absolute terms, and global share, in relative terms, that have gone down

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