During an Oval Office showdown, Trump makes a business decision, ending America’s geopolitical tug-of-war with Russia over Ukraine—echoing Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue, but in a different key.
Not that UA has much choice, but is 'the deal' not just a deal deviding the minerals between USA and Russia?
What I get from it is this:
1. USA provided 119 billion in support to UA and gets 500 billion in minerals in return. (btw, Europe provided 140 billion + 120 billion ready to go)
2. UA puts down its weapons and Russia thus keeps the territory (aka minerals in the soil) it has taken.
Russia will not be thankful though. As we all know, Putin is not going to stick to any agreement. He will just rebuild the Russian Armed Forces and then plan for taking the Baltics, Poland andsoforth, until all the ex-Soviet countries are brought 'Heim ins Reich', using an updated 'Sudeten-Russian' rethoric.
The "Minerals Deal" is essentially political cover for Trump, allowing him to maintain the option of funding Ukraine while avoiding backlash from MAGA supporters. The deal itself is legally meaningless and won’t yield any real returns. Trump can use it as a way to claim he’s bringing money back to the U.S., especially when his supporters accuse him of selling out to globalists by continuing to support Ukraine.
At war's end, Russia will control these assets, and it’s possible they’ll offer contracts to American companies to help exploit these resources. Why? Because by signing those contracts, American companies would effectively be recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over the "Novorossiya" regions that Russia annexes once the war ends.
Putin’s attitude towards the Baltic nations will depend on how much they continue to verbally provoke Russia. As the U.S. withdraws from Europe, the former Warsaw Pact nations will likely adopt a more favourable stance toward Russia. There’s a clear cultural divide along the old Iron Curtain, with Western countries embracing "woke" values, while Eastern nations hold more traditional views--which align much more closely with the Russian view of the world.
A learned analysis of what may perhaps be an tipping point for our times, shown in stark relief against a background of ancient historical similitudes. Truly where men and power are concerned “there is nothing new under the sun”.
Russia and Iran locked in a security deal back in January—no nukes for Iran, per the agreement. Smart move by Putin; he’s handing Trump a big, fat W on this one. A win-win-win for the U.S., Russia, and Iran. But yeah… not everyone’s gonna love it.
If proxies are on the table, so is the U.S. presence in Iraq and Syria. I imagine Trump will use the nuclear W to justify a withdrawal. I’ve heard Iran, Turkey, and Hezbollah are cooperating, while Turkey and that US proxy entity seem to have tensions growing between them. It's anyone's guess where this is all going.
I read somewhere this morning -- can't seem to find it now -- that oil dropped to $67 this morning. In which case, the oil markets are betting Peace. 🙏
Excellent article, except the rather blind pro-Orange Utang approach and the assumption Europe can't do anything.
Facts:
- Russian economy is dwarfded by the European or even by only the EU (that's Europe minus countries like Switzerland, Austria, Norway etc.). Economic power translates into industrial power and from there into military power.
- Europe has about 600 million inhabitants and the EU some 450 million. Russia has 140 million.
- As far as I could find out, Europe has 1,35million active troops. That is far more than Russia has.
- The European troops are better equipped and better motivated too. The latter being an important factor, as pinpointed 2500 years ago by Sun Tzu.
Following your excellent article and the flawless analysis of Thucydides, this shameful display of gangster-style extortion in the Oval Office (Athens indeed) can have different outcomes.
But, unfortunately, the only assured outcome is that the Orange Utang made sure nobody will ever again put their trust into the USA as an ally. The Orange Utang even alienated its neighbours and the entirety of Europe with tariffs (only hurting USA citizens) and high treason within NATO by aligning with Putin.
Further, this will assure Europe gets organized, which is a good thing and we should thank the Orange Utang for it, despite the way he brought it about.
Thank you. We are limited creatures who play out according to those limitations, without acknowledgement of the Limitless, which does as it pleases.
excelente! gran texto
¡Gracias! Me alegra que te haya gustado.
Not that UA has much choice, but is 'the deal' not just a deal deviding the minerals between USA and Russia?
What I get from it is this:
1. USA provided 119 billion in support to UA and gets 500 billion in minerals in return. (btw, Europe provided 140 billion + 120 billion ready to go)
2. UA puts down its weapons and Russia thus keeps the territory (aka minerals in the soil) it has taken.
Russia will not be thankful though. As we all know, Putin is not going to stick to any agreement. He will just rebuild the Russian Armed Forces and then plan for taking the Baltics, Poland andsoforth, until all the ex-Soviet countries are brought 'Heim ins Reich', using an updated 'Sudeten-Russian' rethoric.
There is truly nothing new under the Sun.
The "Minerals Deal" is essentially political cover for Trump, allowing him to maintain the option of funding Ukraine while avoiding backlash from MAGA supporters. The deal itself is legally meaningless and won’t yield any real returns. Trump can use it as a way to claim he’s bringing money back to the U.S., especially when his supporters accuse him of selling out to globalists by continuing to support Ukraine.
At war's end, Russia will control these assets, and it’s possible they’ll offer contracts to American companies to help exploit these resources. Why? Because by signing those contracts, American companies would effectively be recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over the "Novorossiya" regions that Russia annexes once the war ends.
Putin’s attitude towards the Baltic nations will depend on how much they continue to verbally provoke Russia. As the U.S. withdraws from Europe, the former Warsaw Pact nations will likely adopt a more favourable stance toward Russia. There’s a clear cultural divide along the old Iron Curtain, with Western countries embracing "woke" values, while Eastern nations hold more traditional views--which align much more closely with the Russian view of the world.
Let's just see whether this is a play to make the little twerp put on a suit before taking a victory lap, what say?
FWIW, I believe that Vance gets it. Trump, I am not so sure.
Vance certainly gets it, and has for some time. Trump is a bit more difficult to read...
Gets what exactly?
Poetry
A learned analysis of what may perhaps be an tipping point for our times, shown in stark relief against a background of ancient historical similitudes. Truly where men and power are concerned “there is nothing new under the sun”.
Thank you.
Thank you—beautifully said. History’s patterns are as unrelenting as they are revealing.
such historic clarity is wonderful
Much appreciated!
For me, The Ukraine Show ended on a high note
I'm just hoping Persia will soon find Israel sufficiently overextended & step in.
Persia’s been busy shoring up alliances—when the time comes, they won’t be riding alone.
And I've just read this morning that Trump has asked Putin to host negotiations with Iran. Topic : nukes & proxies
Russia and Iran locked in a security deal back in January—no nukes for Iran, per the agreement. Smart move by Putin; he’s handing Trump a big, fat W on this one. A win-win-win for the U.S., Russia, and Iran. But yeah… not everyone’s gonna love it.
Well of Trump wants to rein in Iran"s proxies, they'd better require Trump to rein in its own ME proxy.
If proxies are on the table, so is the U.S. presence in Iraq and Syria. I imagine Trump will use the nuclear W to justify a withdrawal. I’ve heard Iran, Turkey, and Hezbollah are cooperating, while Turkey and that US proxy entity seem to have tensions growing between them. It's anyone's guess where this is all going.
I read somewhere this morning -- can't seem to find it now -- that oil dropped to $67 this morning. In which case, the oil markets are betting Peace. 🙏
Excellent article, except the rather blind pro-Orange Utang approach and the assumption Europe can't do anything.
Facts:
- Russian economy is dwarfded by the European or even by only the EU (that's Europe minus countries like Switzerland, Austria, Norway etc.). Economic power translates into industrial power and from there into military power.
- Europe has about 600 million inhabitants and the EU some 450 million. Russia has 140 million.
- As far as I could find out, Europe has 1,35million active troops. That is far more than Russia has.
- The European troops are better equipped and better motivated too. The latter being an important factor, as pinpointed 2500 years ago by Sun Tzu.
Following your excellent article and the flawless analysis of Thucydides, this shameful display of gangster-style extortion in the Oval Office (Athens indeed) can have different outcomes.
But, unfortunately, the only assured outcome is that the Orange Utang made sure nobody will ever again put their trust into the USA as an ally. The Orange Utang even alienated its neighbours and the entirety of Europe with tariffs (only hurting USA citizens) and high treason within NATO by aligning with Putin.
Further, this will assure Europe gets organized, which is a good thing and we should thank the Orange Utang for it, despite the way he brought it about.